Some may remember a similar discussion last year (OJ survival rate of up to 50k cards).
http://www.net54baseball.com/showthr...d.php?t=196113
Quote:
Originally Posted by oldjudge
The low number is certainly one. The high number probably represents a common pose that was issued in 1887 and reissued in 1888-1890. I would guess that number is south of 100, but probably not a lot south, perhaps 80-90.
|
I agree that the most common OJ is likely around 100 and I place the first pose of George Myers in that category with both type A & B zero number cards, an Fb, and Fc. FWIW, my estimates were arrived at as follows:
no more than 40 cards from 1887 type A zero number
no more than 20 cards from 1887 type B zero number
no more than 15 cards from 1888 (Fb)
no more than 30 cards from 1889 (Fc)
This gives a total of 105 which I rounded down to 100 but could easily be less (70-100 would be good guesstimate) for pose 1. The same math was used on pose 2 & 3 and recommend that if you wish to collect all three poses of George Myers that you don't pass on the next pose 3 that surfaces (Fb only).
I should note that there are many examples of Fb cards with less than 15 examples. Fb Anson in street clothes may hit 15 while Anson in Uniform is 4 (or 5). Fb Deacon White poses 2 & 8 are maybe around 10 apiece while the other 7 are ~2-5.
There are many very tough poses. The largest population of new poses surfaced in 1888 and 1888 is likewise the year with the highest count for single year poses. These are generally very tough cards. These coupled with a handful of Script cards and 1889 California League cards together with the many recently added poses that are cropping variations (with ball / without ball) and you are able to pull the common poses that are known at ~100 copies down to the ~20 copy average.