I am watching the Kreindler Event with some interest and this thread should not be construed in any way as a criticism of how the event is being run, but I think there are several questions that could be asked and probably have been asked by the organizers of this event and others.
Consider first Powerball, cheap tickets that attract more "investors" as the jackpot increases. Even with the lowest jackpot, it is sustainable because the jackpot is based on sales. The willingness to fork out a buck or two on a pipe dream seems attractive to a very large pool of participants, and as the odds get longer, the pool gets bigger.
Then consider the Dream Home fundraising method of St. Jude's Hospital. In this event a $300-400K home is built in a community. Much of the expense is donated by contractors for advertising. 10,000 tickets are offered at $100 each. I believe more can be sold based on demand, but at 10K tickets, St Jude's grosses at least one million, and I believe it is rare when unsold tickets are left on the table. Here the jackpot is less substantial than Powerball, but more "attractive" because the odds of winning are better and the ticket price is in essence a charitable donation, and the ticket holders get the satisfaction of charitable giving even if they are losers.
The Kreindler Event has an even smaller jackpot if you will, and a smaller pool of folks with potential interest in buying tickets, but I look at the list of ticket buyers and the majority I believe (I didn't count) have reserved three or more tickets. The odds of winning at the five ticket ($100) level are still quite small, but the jackpot is attractive enough for them. Like the Dream Home example there is a minimum required of ticket sales, but Kreindler is not a charitable donation.
My question therefore is would the Kreindler event reach its target price quicker if the tickets were less expensive?
I doubt that those willing to spend $60, $80 or $100 in the event would spend any fewer dollars if the tickets were less expensive. If the tickets were $2, would a significant number of Powerball type players chip in without affecting the the twenty dollar and up pool of buyers. Would a $5 or $10 ticket option allow the goal to be reached sooner or would many of the $20 single ticket buyers simply risk $5 or $10 for a single ticket instead of the $20 buy in?
With variables of jackpot size, jackpot cost, ticket price, potential buyer pool size and intangibles (i.e. Charitable giving effect), I seriously doubt that any mathematical answer for any given event could be constructed that would be at all accurate. For a series of similar events I'm sure trial and error with different formats might be helpful.
That said, I'm sure that billyb would be tickled to death if $2 tickets were offered for the Kreindler event.
Any thoughts?