I think many of the thoughts in this thread have entered all collectors' minds over the past few years. But I believe just which of these points entering a collectors mind is based upon what type of collector and what budget that collector has to work with.
To let you know where my viewpoint is coming from, I would consider myself a mid-level collector based upon what I can afford. By mid-level, I mean that I will spend $25 to roughly $8,000 on a card that I might really want, though most of the time, my average cost on a card is about $350.
I certainly am not one who can spend tens of thousands of dollars on a card. I do consider myself blessed knowing that I can spend more than $10 at a time on a card. Let's face it, many collectors can only afford $10-$20 at a time on something...and there is nothing wrong with that. We all collect what we enjoy and hopefully what we can afford without breaking the bank. That's what makes collecting enjoyable for all of us.
The following are some of my thoughts and what I think most mid-level collectors probably think; though I could be way off.
For example, concerning the prices on high grade or extreme rarity cards, most collectors (including myself) aren't concerned because they know they would never be able to afford them anyway. Becasue of this, I think most of us aren't concerned about the Feds stepping in and making an impact.
I have actually enjoyed the fact that prices have come down in recent times. Again speaking for mid to low range budget collectors out there, it has made collecting more affordable and enjoyable. As a lover of the game and baseball history, I collect primarily for the love of the hobby, not for an investment. I think it is great that some of those who are only in the hobby for financial gain have left because of the economy and down turn in the prices of cards. Oh don't get me wrong, I have some valuable cards and rarities that I don't want the bottom to fall out of, but for the most part, I am enjoying the cheaper E and T cards that are now out there for collectors with budgets like me to get. I am a little fearful that my larger investments will turn out to be duds, but just like the weather and most aspects of life, I don't think I can control it.
I don't see anything after WWII bucking the trend except for the tried and true sets such as 52 Topps. I do think that the E cards will buck the trend because their availability to buyers seems to be drying up in my opinion. For example, I collect E98s. Over the past 2 years, I have seen only a handful of them for sale and usually just one at a time, such as in the last Legacy auction. ( AND it happened to be a high grade Mathewson that went for over $16 Grand which I could never afford anyway
). Even REA only offedered one for sale in its annual auction. I hardly ever see them on the BST and the BIN ones on ebay are WAY over priced and most of them have been on there for months. I also think that all vintage cards at lower grades will hold there value because there will be more collectors at those levels with the current economic conditions.
Just a few of my thoughts,
Tim Kindler