Quote:
Originally Posted by rats60
Jeter has a career oWAR of 96.3, 20th all time. That is higher than Jimmie Foxx, Mike Schmidt, Albert Pujols and Ken Gfiffey Jr. Alan Trammell has a career oWAR of 63, 83rd all time right between Bernie Williams and Larry Walker. People remember the offense and don't really care about defense. They care about championships, which Jeter leads 5 to 1. They care about his postseason records, including most hits, total bases and runs scored. They care about milestones like 3000 hits and being 6th all time in hits. That is why Jeter will be a 1st ballot HOFer with one of the highest vote % ever and Trammell couldn't get 75% of the vote from the baseball writers.
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As I said, Jeter was a quantitative compiler, and very, very clearly almost exactly the same quality player as Trammell. Plus, WAR (worthless analytical rat-shit) currently has Milwaukee's Cain as the best player in the NL. Is there anyone---anyone--who would take him over Baez, Freeman, Carpenter or any number of others? If so, watch out for the guys in the white coats! And if anyone truly thinks that Jeter was a better player than Mike Schmidt (the best 3rd baseman of all time) or Jimmy Foxx, better take cover immediately--the gentlemen in the white coats are rapidly gaining on you! Quick, duck--they just missed grabbing your coattails!
As an illuminating example of just how worthless WAR is, in any form, MLB Now had as a guest the person in charge of calculating and keeping track of defensive runs saved. In response to co-guest Ken Rosenthal's question, that person acknowledged that in point of actual fact, a defensive run saved is not actually a defensive run saved, because those who calculate such things totally ignore the context in which an outstanding defensive play is made. Thus, a diving stab and subsequent putout on a grounder about to get through the infield with the bases loaded and two out is worth exactly the same as the same play made with a runner on first and two out--one defensive run saved. In reality, the expected run value in the latter situation is far from a complete run-- it is actually 0.2203. Counting it as nearly .78 greater than it actually is in this and other such situations hugely inflates the defensive component of WAR. And insofar as the baserunning component of WAR is concerned, check out the guys who tend to lead the league in runs scored, which is of course the ultimate objective of running the bases--TO GET HOME! They most frequently are the players with the highest OBP, coupled with the capacity to get themselves all around the bases with one swing while standing at home plate--can you say Babe Ruth (led the league in runs scored 8 times)? Mickey Mantle (led 5 times, despite all his injuries)? Ted Williams (yes, with six top totals, he led the league in runs scored more times than DiMaggio, despite missing nearly 5 full years of his prime to military service)? Which is why Ralph Kiner, who could hardly have been said to have been touched at all with the gift of speed, scored over 100 runs 6 TIMES! Luis Aparacio had speed to burn, both to steal bases and take the extra base, yet he never, ever scored 100 runs in a single season even once in his career. The baserunning components of WAR are thus also greatly inflated.
Insofar as offensive WAR is concerned, my information is that it is based upon Pete Palmer's linear weights values, due largely to the fact that Bill James' far more accurate formula for calculating runs created--shown to be consistently accurate within 2-3%--is more cumbersome to use and more complicated.
In the middle of last season, WAR had Andrelton Simmons as the most valuable player in the AL. No, I'm not kidding--Simmons (who is admittedly a very fine fielding shortstop)! My point with regard to WAR is that when your methodology leads you to absurd results, the intelligent person questions his methodology, rather than following it blindly wherever it may lead.
Concluding, it will be interesting to see where Jeter's popularity ends up if he is actually doing what he appears to be doing with the Miami francise--stripping it of expenses by trading quality players and getting very little in return--and selling it 5-7 years down the road to double his and the other investors' money (in case anyone hasn't noticed, that is approximately the rate at which the value of sports franchises is appreciating).
As I've stated, buy him if you like him, but don't think he was in any way, shape or form any kind of world-beater as a player. It is indisputable that there have been a very, very large number of better players throughout the history of the game than Derek Jeter.
May collecting bring you joy rather than distress,
Larry