[the 'stache]

I'm going to sound like a homer, but Christian Yelich is the MVP. The voters will give it to Bellinger (best player on the best team), or Rendon (Nats are the feel good story of the late season), but Yelich shouldn't be excluded, considering Bellinger and Rendon's drop off at the end of the season. More on that in a bit.

Firstly, let's address the time missed by the reigning NL MVP. It matters not that Yelich missed 32 games. Or, it shouldn't. Mike Trout will win the American League MVP, and he missed 28 games. Mookie Betts won it last year, and he missed 26 games. There are other recent MVP seasons where a player missed a number of games. Off the top of my head, Josh Hamilton won the 2010 American League MVP for the Rangers missing 29 games. I'm not even looking at, or thinking about the Senior Circuit. But these three of the last nine AL MVPs have missed 28 games, on average, so Yelich missing 32 shouldn't even be a consideration.

Next, this whole "the Brewers made the playoffs without Yelich, so he's not as important as everybody thinks he is" is a gross misrepresentation unsupported by statistical evidence. That this misinformation is flying around the web ticks me off as one who studies baseball history, and statistics. It's irresponsible, and I hope the voters will put more thought into this vote than that. The Brewers went on a tear, and made the playoffs because their pitching, which had been God awful all year, returned to 2018 form, not because of anything special their offense did.

The Brewers offense averaged 4.67 runs/game through September 5th, hitting .248 with a .768 team OPS. That day, the Brewers lost to the Cubs 10-5, falling to 71-68. They had virtually no chance at making the playoffs. Then, they started their historic run. They won the next four games, the final three against the Cubs, and the opener against the Marlins. They outscored their opponents 26-11. Through September 9th, the Brewers, with Christian Yelich, were now hitting .249 as a team with a .772 OPS, averaging 4.72 runs/game (675 runs in 143 games). Yelich went out early in the game on the 10th when he fouled a ball off his knee, shattering the Patella. Trent Grisham finished his last at bat, striking out, lowering his season batting average from .330 to .329. From the 10th to the end of the season, the Brewers hit .226 with a .735 OPS. The Brewers team hit 23 points lower, and OPS'd 37 points lower without Yelich. Yet they finished the season by going 18-5 (14-5 without their MVP).

Why? Their pitching. Through September 5th, the 71-68 Brewers had a 4.65 ERA. That dropped to 4.59 in the first 4 games of their improbable run with Yelich. The remainder of the way they played without him. The last 19 games of the season, Milwaukee went 14-5 because the team's ERA was 2.93. That was the difference maker. That's how the Brewers thrived without the best hitter in baseball this season.

And Yelich was the best hitter in the game this year (Yelich's OPS was 1.100, Trout's was 1.083).

And in the NL, Yelich was the best hitter by a wide margin, not only in OPS, but in situational performance.

The three finalists for the NL MVP will be Yelich, Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon. That's pretty much a given.

Their final numbers:

Yelich .329 AVG, 130 G, 100 runs, 44 HR, 97 RBI, 30 SB (30/32, .9375%). 80 BB, 118 K, .429 OBP/.671 SLG/1.100 OPS. 179 OPS+
Bellinger .305 AVG, 156 G, 121 runs, 47 HR, 115 RBI, 15 SB (15/20, 75%). 95 BB, 108 K .406 OBP/.629 SLG/1.035 OPS. 169 OPS+
Rendon .319 AVG, 146 G, 117 runs, 34 HR, 126 RBI, 5 SB (5/6 SB .83%). 80 BB, 86 K, .412 OBP/.598 SLG/1.010 OPS 153 OPS+

Yelich led the National League in batting average, on base percentage, home run rate (1 home run every 11.113 AB) and OPS+, and led the Major Leagues in slugging percentage and OPS.
Belinger led the National League with 351 bases.
Rendon led the National League with 44 doubles and 126 RBI.

I would point out that Yelich's lower RBI total is a product of where he hit in the order.

Yelich batted 2nd in 100 of 130 games. 454 PA.
Rendon batted 3rd in 137 of 146 games. 612 PA.
Belinger batted 4th in 131 of 156 games. 563 PA.

Now, I would first point to how the three men finished the season. Let's first look at their first and second half splits.

Belinger
First half: 377 PAs, .336 AVG, 30 HR, 71 RBI, .432 OBP/.692 SLG/1.124 OPS.
Second half: 284 PA, .263 AVG, 17 HR, 44 RBI, .371 OBP/.546 SLG/.917 OPS

Rendon
First half: 324 PA, .304 AVG, 20 HR, 62 RBI, .386 OBP/.611 SLG/.997 OPS.
Second half: 322 PA, .336 AVG, 14 HR, 64 RBI, .438 OBP/..585 SLG/1.023 OPS

Yelich
First half: 365 PA, .329 AVG, 31 HR, 67 RBI, .433 OBP/.707 SLG/1.140 OPS.
Second half: 215 PA, .330 AVG, 13 HR, 30 RBI, .423 OBP/.611 SLG/1.034 OPS.


Cody Bellinger's second half absolutely pales in comparison to his first. In the second half of the season, his AVG dropped from .336 to .263. That's a plummet of 73 points. And his OPS drops from 1.124 to .917. That's a 207 point drop.

Usually, as a team comes down the stretch, you want your best player playing at their best to help the team make the playoffs. Bellinger's MVP candidacy is almost entirely based on his first half. His OPS dropped every month:

April/March: 1.397
May: .998
June .967
July .952
August .918
September/October: .891

Now, none of those months are bad, though an OPS in the mid 900s or high 800s isn't MVP caliber, not when the league leader is at 1.100 for the season, and not considering the offensive boom in 2019 across baseball. Bellinger's Dodgers benefited from having a deep team. The best team in the NL in the regular season. He hit .235 in 28 August games before rebounding to hit .280 the last month plus of the season.

Rendon's first and second half splits are pretty close: .997 before the break, 1.023 after. But that second half metric is based off of a good July (.972) and a spectacular August (1.162). He was very un MVP-like in September and October, hitting .239 and OPS'ing .820 the last 26 games.

What about Yelich? Average isn't as important as it used to be when assessing players, but Yelich hit .330 before the break, and .329 after (and it's actually .330 if somebody else doesn't strike out finishing his last at bat). His power numbers in the first half were higher before some back issues started creeping in, but that can't be considered. Injuries happen. Still, he averaged a home run rate of 1:9.81 in the first half, and 1:14.23 in the second.

How did Yelich do late? Well, his September was cut short by the knee break. But while Bellinger was tanking late (.235 AVG, .918 OPS in August, .280 AVG, .891 OPS in Sept/Oct), and Rendon was fantastic in August (.394 AVG, 1.162 OPS) and disappointing in Sept/Oct (.235 AVG, .820 OPS), Yelich was heating up in a big way before he got hurt. August was one of his two months below a 1.000 OPS as the back caused him to miss six games, and he went the last 12 games of the month without a homer. Yelich hit .306 with a .939 OPS in August. But September he was scorching before the knee injury. In 9 September games, he hit .345 and slashed .513 OBP/.724 SLG/1.237 OPS. He had 3 homers in his final 28 at bats.

Of the three, Christian Yelich was the only one that played like an MVP in the stretch run.

What about each man's WAR for the season? Here is where Cody Bellinger has his advantage. He's clearly the best defender of the three in 2019.

2019 WAR (bWAR=Baseball Reference, fWAR=Fangraphs)
Cody Bellinger bWAR 9.0, fWAR 7.8
Christian Yelich bWAR 7.1, fWAR 7.8
Anthony Rendon bWAR 6.3, fWAR 7.0

Here is why I place less importance on WAR. There's no universally-accepted method of calculating it. Baseball Reference says that Bellinger's defense, and his hitting makes him 1.9 games more valuable than Yelich, and 2.7 games more valuable than Rendon.

But Fangraphs has Bellinger and Yelich tied at 7.8, and Rendon .8 behind both men. And remember, Bellinger played 156 games, 26 more than Yelich's 130. If Bellinger plays 20% more games, and provides the same value that Yelich did in 130 games, is he the MVP?

Should Christian Yelich be excluded because he played fewer games? His contribution for the season, per WAR, says that, on a per game basis, he was the most valuable player in the league.

What about win probability added? (source Baseball Reference):

Christian Yelich 7.1
Cody Bellinger 5.0
Anthony Rendon 4.8

That's not even close. Yelich's WPA is over 40% better than Bellinger's.

What about situational hitting?

RISP:
Bellinger 160 PA, .298 AVG, .444 OBP/.545 SLG/.989 OPS
Rendon 205 PA, .365 AVG, .463 OBP/.667 SLG/1.130 OPS
Yelich 132 PA, .327 AVG, .462 OBP/.693 SLG/1.155 OPS

Bellinger lags way behind the other two players.

2-outs, RISP:
Bellinger 68 PA, .241 AVG, .397 OBP/.407 SLG/.804 OPS
Rendon 77 PA, .362 AVG, .519 OBP/.793 SLG/1.313 OPS
Yelich 60 PA, .273 AVG, .467 OBP/.659 SLG/1.126 OPS

Bellinger's OPS with two out and runners in scoring position is 322 points lower than Christian Yelich's, and a whopping 509 points lower than Rendon's. Small sample size alert.

"Late and close" (defined by BBR: "are Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck.")

Rendon 79 PA, .328 AVG, .430 OBP/.612 SLG/1.042 OPS
Yelich 96 PA, .443 AVG, .547 OBP/.829 SLG/1.375 OPS
Bellinger 88 PA, .260 AVG, .368 OBP/.521 SLG/.888 OPS

Again, small sample size, but noticing a trend? Bellinger lags behind the others again.

High leverage
Rendon 106 PA, .402 AVG, .453 OBP/.815 SLG/1.268 OPS
Yelich 100 PA, .384 AVG, .460 OBP/.791 SLG/1.251 OPS
Bellinger 122 PA, .314 AVG, .397 OBP/.637 SLG/1.034 OPS

Again, Bellinger is 217 points behind Yelich, and 234 behind Rendon in OPS.

Medium leverage
Rendon 233 PA, .327 AVG, .421 OBP/.597 SLG/1.018 OPS
Yelich 202 PA, .321 AVG, .426 OBP/.655 SLG/1.081 OPS
Bellinger 272 PA, .268 AVG, .379 OBP/.580 SLG/.959 OPS

Bellinger is 59 points behind Rendon, and 122 points behind Yelich

Low leverage
Rendon 305 PA, .285 AVG, .393 OBP/.523 SLG/.917 OPS
Yelich 278 PA, .315 AVG, .421 OBP/.638 SLG/1.059 OPS
Bellinger 265 PA, .335 AVG, .438 OBP/.674 SLG/1.112 OPS

Bellinger is at his best in the least critical of situations, whereas Christian Yelich and Anthony Rendon are at their best in high leverage situations.

Expressed another way, Fangraphs' Clutch metric ( How much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment):

Yelich .37
Rendon .61
Bellinger -.99

Yelich's score is strong. Rendon's even better. Bellinger? Terrible. He simply does not perform well in the clutch.

Looking at some more offensive numbers.

wRC+ (Runs per PA scaled where 100 is average; both league and park adjusted; based on wOBA)
Yelich 174
Bellinger 162
Rendon 154

Now, we would need to look at defense.

First, Fangraphs employs The Fielding Bible for its defensive analysis.

DRS (defensive runs saved above or below average)
Yelich -1
Rendon 2
Bellinger 22

UZR (ultimate zone rating)/150 games played. UZR considers arm, range, double plays and errors:
Yelich 2.5
Rendon 2.0
Bellinger 13.7

Rtot (the number of runs above or below average the player was worth based on plays made. Total defensive contribution. Baseball reference)
Yelich 5
Rendon 8
Bellinger 1 (1 CF, 1 1B, -1 RF)

Rdrs (defensive runs saved above average)
Rendon 1
Bellinger 25
Yelich -1

In the final analysis, does Bellinger's superior defense in right field offset the difference between he and Rendon and Yelich?

I don't see it, and not because Yelich is my guy. Bill James, in assessing Roberto Clemente's defensive prowess in his Historical Baseball Abstract, talked about how much his play in right field impacted his team's success during a season. How many truly impactful plays he made during a season. Plays that directly influenced a team's win/loss record. How many game saving plays does Bellinger make in right field? I wouldn't imagine it would be more than Clemente in his prime. James said that Clemente's defense, as good as it was, just didn't make up for the gap between his power, and somebody like Hank Aaron, who was also a good fielder. Bellinger might save runs with great catches. He might stop runners advancing with strong accurate throws. He might throw out the occasional runner at the plate. But 25 runs saved, over a 162 game season, is one more run saved better than an average right fielder (ie Yelich, this season, anyway) every 6.5 games.

If Bellinger had come even close to his first half after he break, I'd say he was the clear winner. But his offensive performance tanked. That's not to say it was bad, but it certainly wasn't MVP level. Baseball Reference has his sOPS+ before the break at 194. After, 139. His OPS in the first half was 207 points higher than it was in the second half. That's a huge drop off.

Yelich's offensive numbers are just better. His performance in the clutch is way better. And Yelich versus Rendon? A 179 OPS + for Yelich against Rendon's 153 OPS+, with comparable defensive performance. Let's not forget Yelich's base stealing. He attempted 32 stolen bases, and was successful 30 times. He was the second best power-speed man in the National League. If defense impacts runs allowed, how about moving up 30 bases over the course of the year with swipes, in a season where nobody was stealing. Yelich moved himself into better scoring position once every five games. He had the second best success rate of all MLB base stealers, and the one guy ahead of him, Tim Locastro, only attempted 17 stolen bases.

All things considered, offensive (throughout the whole season, down the stretch) performances, clutch performance, defense, I've gotta give it to Yelich.