Quote:
Originally Posted by packs
How can you compare him to Rob Deer? Rob Deer is a career 220 hitter who couldn't take a walk and didn't score runs. Judge led the league in runs and walks.
I posted Bryant's batting line already. Harper is hitting 133 himself in his series. But there is something wrong with only Judge. I don't buy that.
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A- using the playoffs as a gauge of a player's ability is silly, it's too small of a sample size and means absolutely nothing
B- Deer posted a career walk rate of 12.7% and a K rate of 31.2% , at present Judge ,after only one and 1/6th of a season, has a BB% of 17.6 and a K% of 32.3% Deer also has his entire career to compare with scouting reports and age decline built in to these numbers.
C- runs are a team stat and not indicative of individual performance (you have no control over how well the people hit behind you)
D- Bryant has a history of being good in MLB and doesn't have the same batted ball profile of Judge, he also plays good defense at a premium position and has averaged 7 fWAR for 3 straight seasons and only strikes out 23.7% of the time using the playoffs to compare them is silly ,once again
E- league avg for the AL was 18.6% soft contact 49.2% med. contact and 32.2% hard contact with a 21.3 K% and a batting avg on balls in play of .300 Judge posted a 11.2 soft contact, 43.5 med contact and 45.3 hard contact but with 30.7 K% and a BABIP of .357 (which is high for him) Using his nearly 800 PA's worth of data , he looks like a guy who swings hard but got lucky on balls in play, if that regresses towards the mean of .300, and hi K% increases or BB% decreases (or all of the above) he could become a guy who struggles to make contact enough to be viable.
F- AL hitters avg swinging at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%) was 30% and they made contact on those pitches 62.9% of the time, in the zone (Z-swing%) AL avg was 66.8% and they made contact 85.5% of the time. Judge's O-swing% was 27.4$ with 44% contact, and his Z-swing% was 62.4% with 82.2% contact. like I said, contact + K's could be an issue for him if he doesn't make the proper adjustments,