Quote:
Originally Posted by JustinD
Low morale is not the same as a slow return to sanity.
I still fully believe pre-pandemic prices are a more realistic baseline and expect that return over the coming couple years. This was a fad and the collectors will continue on. This is not a death of the hobby, just another passing of a pet rock, beanie baby jump in collecting history until the next comes along as it always will.
A return to prices of just a few years ago is certainly not a sky is falling scenario.
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I'm one of the collectors who returned to the hobby in 2021, 25 years removed from buying packs as a 10 year old, so take this for what it is from that perspective.
I'll go ahead and admit up front that I'm not familiar with the ebbs and flows of the hobby as most here are. I'm a data analyst by profession, so I love looking at all of the research and analyses that have already been done over the years here on N54, as well as some of my own. I agree with you that most card prices will come back down to pre-pandemic levels, especially modern cards (Ohtani may be the outlier). But with pre-war vintage, that I'm not so sure about. What I see when I look at pre-war vintage sales data back to 2005 is that cards were severely undervalued in comparison to other eras and their respective price increases over time leading up to the 2020-2021 boom. I think that the current value of pre-war vintage is the new baseline. I personally don't see those values falling to pre-pandemic levels, but again I'm not familiar enough with the ebbs and flows to feel confident in that assessment.
I echo James' earlier post in that, as someone who has fallen in love with pre-war vintage, my entry point is much higher than if I had started just 5 years ago. It really stinks for me to see grail cards on the board that I might have been able to afford if I had just started 5 years ago, but are now unattainable. Would I like to see pre-war prices drop to pre-pandemic levels? Selfishly, I would have to say yes, just because I would love to be able have the chance to collect some of those grail cards that I see posted. My morale isn't low about collecting in the present-day, I'm just sick when I think about the kind of collection I could have if I had only started 5-10-15 years ago
Having said all of that, I'm a collector at heart, so I will find a way to collect the cards that make me happy, even if that means one card a month or every couple of months. Now that I've rediscovered a love for the hobby as an adult, and there are great resources like N54, I see myself sticking around for the long haul this time.