Quote:
Originally Posted by 100backstroke
The coin industry (PCGS company) has already attempted this "survival" for coins a) of all graded, b)mint only coins. Go check out PCGS web and check out their coin "survival" rates. Will PSA or SGC ever try to duplicate this survival estimate like PCGS does with coins?
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I think one of the inherent problems with translating this to the card industry is that there are probably very well kept records in regards to US circulation numbers regarding coins. So extrapolating a "survival" number for a coin can be accomplished. We know how many were produced/minted and how many have been graded, so pulling together numbers is pretty straight forward.
But in the card industry production numbers, especially for vintage pre-war cards are non-existent. We have no idea how many were produced. When you you don't know how many were produced and distributed, coming up with a "survival" number is impossible.