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Old 12-17-2006, 12:59 AM
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Default Caramel card scarcity

Posted By: fkw

4,000 examples of a common T206 would = roughly 2 million T206 cards out there. I think that is high. Ive always heard estimates of about 2,000 of ea. T206 common (1 million total cards), but no one really knows.

You have to remember there are 10-20X fewer subjects in the average E set (compared to T206) so obviously the numbers of individual cards of a certain player will be different and you cant compare them.

EXAMPLE: Say there are 2,000 T206 red portrait Cobbs, and 1,000 E95 Cobbs, the E95 is still 40X rarer (25 subjects to a set rather than 525)

Overall I believe for every E card (combining all the sets), you have about 10-15 T206 cards.

This will give you an idea, (on eBay right now in the pre1930 for sellers who know what they have and use ACC#'s) there are 1041 T206 cards (ACC# listed in auction title), and only 72 total "E" cards listed in title (E90-1, E90, E91, E92, E93, E94, E95, E96, E97, E98, E101, E102, E103) (PS I used both E-92 and E92 etc., and T-206 and T206 for each search).

Thats would make all "E" cards combined 14X scarcer than a T206 card (on eBay).

But I also think more E cards are saved (set collectors) and not sold as frequently overall.

Some have said they think there are 50-250 of a certain player for some E sets, but I believe there are far more of each player because the sets are so small. For example if there are 250 of a certain E95 card that would only be 6,250 total E95s out there. If there are 4,000 of a certain T206 card, thats would be 2,000,000 total cards. There is no way a E95 is 300+ times rarer than the same player in a T206 set. That would be like seeing 300 T206 (red) Cobbs for every E95 Cobb.

I think there is more like 1,000 of each E95 card (20 per State, ie. 20 E95 Cobbs in Ohio), and if thats true it would still make E95's roughly 40X scarcer than a T206 card (based on 1,000,000 total T206 cards/2,000 ea. common).

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