[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by G1911

We don't know where it will be in 3 months, but when the market is setting records and has already skyrocketed recently, it's not a good time to buy blue chips and index funds.

When the market has fallen 20-25%, your risk floor is way, way lower, especially factoring in the absolute risk floor. It's a much better time to buy. The market is not good right now and prices are way lower. Makes more sense to buy now than when it is setting records.

Of course, like I have said, it may be a better time to buy in 3, 6, 9, or 12 months from now. You can't time absolute lows or peaks beyond luck. But you can choose to buy when things are high or low. By buying this year instead of last year, that money is at 0% instead of -20%. All I'm gambling on when timing it, really, is that when in a new record high market, there will be a lower buying point in the future and I will just wait until it's lower. The odds of this strategy biting me in the rear are incredibly low. My gamble is simply that we will have periods of highs and lows and it is smarter to buy long holds during the lows, which the entire history of the market bears out.

If you buy at regular intervals, and hold, you will end up taking advantage of the best times to buy and that will outperform your attempt to time, in my opinion. This is why nearly all investment advisers will tell you to put each month's retirement fund contribution to whatever your preferred allocation is, rather than putting it into cash and trying to self-manage when you invest it.