Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
If you would have waited at 14K, when the market had nearly doubled in a few years, you NEVER would have had another opportunity to buy at a better price and you would have missed 7 or 8 years of opportunities. And you would have sold, or at least not bought, AMZN at 100 which it never saw again. So it really wasn't so high after all even though it seemed so at the time.
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Like I said, my position is to hold for the long haul for my future, not to sell whenever the market goes up. That is stupid, and isn't what I'm advocating. Don't realize gains anytime you have a gain. I sell if I see a bad future for that specific stock, otherwise I'm holding for the long haul and advocating that. Buy during the dips that repeats over and over and over through stock history. It goes up over time. But my gamble, that the economic high would not last forever and I'd see a better buying opportunity after months of setting records, was a very safe one. Records everywhere = high, down 20-25% = low.
Things go up and down. It has never gone inexorably up without dips. We are in one right now, and everyone knows it. It may dip more in Q4, or Q1 23. But it's down a lot, and I've made a ton of profit by the simple gamble that the market has cycles and to buy when everything is setting records is foolish. I'm not saying sit out the market for 15+ years and miss all the gradual gains. I'm saying some big record points are not a smart time to buy the blue chips and indexes. They will go down again in future, and lower your floor and raise your eventual profit.
I am in a much better position for my future safety by not buying at the big up spike points, which we know and identify in real time.