I hate that ball at the numbers you're talking about. Lots of badly faded autos with every possibility they will continue to fade. Of course, I am not a real auto collector, but I wouldn't touch regardless of authenticity and don't find it desirable at any price. But then again, I just spent around the same amount on a mid-grade set of 1950s baseball cards that he might easily feel the same way about. Eye of beholder.
Mantles are tough. I have known of good ones gotten in person that have come back as bad from JSA even though I know they were signed in person. Just so commonly forged it is natural for authenticators to err on the conservative side.
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