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Originally Posted by 1952boyntoncollector
I disagree..... again when saying depending on your focus..the question will be ..what will be the rock solid focus be that will immune to price falls whenever we are in a price fall situation.. ..when people say well at least the main cards are solid 54 topps, 33 ruth ETC.
I do not think they are coming up with 100s of cards in the ETC.......I think its less than 50.....and again if there is difference on opinion on some cards..then maybe those aren't rock solid...like everyone agrees 1933 Ruth? I got a feeling in those 100s of cards you are talking about there will not be the same agreement as there is on a 1933 ruth as there will be on all those 100s of cards you are talking about
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I think you need to do some studying in other collectible fields, Jake. Coins would be a good one, since that field became an organized hobby 120 years before cards did, and the development in the baseball card field has virtually duplicated what occurred in coins in every significant respect, including the gradual development of interest in variations and TPG (PCGS is owned by the same entity as PSA, and came into being several years earlier than the latter). Read some of Q. David Bowers' books--he is reknowned and universally respected in the field as both dealer (he started in his teens) and author and/or collaborator in many, many important coin books. The same sentiment of "the sky is falling, the sky is falling," was expressed many times in that hobby's history, and guess what? It is not only alive and well, but forging forward quite strongly, setting new price records for innumerable issues, not just a few. Those that have fallen back in price are and have been that which attract speculators/investors, namely relatively common pieces in ultra-high grade. Truly scarce to rare items for which the demand originates with true collectors have pretty much proceeded upwards in value in an almost linear fashion. Don't believe me? Get a copy of the coin collectors red book, a yearly publication quite comparable to our Standard Catalog, and some from past years or decades, if you can. You will see that many, many of these truly collectible coins not only maintain a value in 4 figures on up, but consistently increase. True, the so-called " trophy items" in coins, which are deemed exceedingly rare/and or significant (and which are comparable to just a few of the examples I gave in cards) have shown considerably higher rates of appreciation and current value, but that's the name of the game now, always has been, and always will be: value = rare and significant in the best condition you can find or afford. Check out the redbook--you will see that virtually every great rarity in coins--and there are more than just a few--is well up into 5-7 figures, dollar-wise. A 1913 Liberty Head Nickel (just five struck on the sly by mint employees) sold for $5 million + not long ago. 1804 silver dollars are valued in excess of $1 million, with 15 known examples through different strikings.
Or, if you like, study what has occurred in the area of collectible automobiles. Carrol Shelby's five Cobra Daytona Coupes, raced at Le Mans, could have been had--all of them, total--for $12,000 in the late '60's. Now, each and every one of them is valued in the seven figure range. And that certainly is not an isolated example. The early '60's Ferrari GT 250 is a $30-$40 million dollar car all day long, every day, at any significant auction. And people don't drive them--they're too valuable. They are simply collectibles like the one's we pursue. Another example? Take the 1967 Chevrolet Corvettes with the 427 cubic inch, 435 horsepower motor. They made a fair amount of them, but from the time it could be purchased in the '80's for $6,000 or so it continued to rise in value until now, the best condition examples command $150 to $200K. It simply became the one to have for many a serious collector. A 1971 LS 6 Corvette (454 motor, 425 horsepower), of which GM made 188, could have been had in the $8,000 range in 1979 (I know--I was offered one that was in tremendous condition then, but somehow turned it down when I could have bought it--darn!!!) is now $150,000. 1971 Hemi convertibles--a terrible car--nose heavy, and prone to shimmying and shaking, as it lacked the rigidity of a coupe, is now a $3 million dollar car. Why? They made just 12 of them, and while all '64-71 Hemi's are quite valuable, the '71 convertible Cuda is King because it is the one to have. 1969-70 Boss 429 Mustangs (something like 1,000 to 2,000 made over those two years) is a quarter of a million dollar car. I rode in a friend of mine's in the '80's, which he bought as an investment somewhere in the $12 to $17K range.
All of the above represent just a very few of the examples I could have cited, if someone was willing to pay me for my time to do so. They are merely illustrative of the many such items out there.
Objects of history, significant in their own field, become valuable BECAUSE PEOPLE LIKE THEM, AND THEY'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO LIKE THEM! Prices have risen to the stars on some of the most desirable items because collectors just like us, but with a net worth of many, many millions of $$$ have been drawn to the hobby too. As I said earlier, demand for true collector's items is like a pyramid, but with ledges--the higher the value of any given item, the taller the pyramid. While it is most definitely true that as prices on a given item progress to the stratosphere, the rate of appreciation slows down (I have tracked it in coins and cars), the item's value can't fall very far in the absence of some enormous catastrophic event, because if the highest level of demand, i.e. the collectors willing and able to pay some of these Mt. Everest prices, falls away, the next lower level is still there, still wants the item, and is willing to pay the price within their means.
Also, think outside the box. A '33 Ruth's potential in middle grade is limited because there is no real shortage of them. Compare its value in VG/Ex or Ex to the recent sale of a 1921 Holsum Bread Ruth in VG, with only one presently having been graded by all TPG's combined--a cool $83,000. It's significance is that its Ruth (and 1921 was also both Ruth's best year, and the year of the Yankees first pennant, to the discerning collector), and it at least appears to be magnificently rare! Interestingly, the 1914 Baltimore News Ruth, certainly not then a "mainstream" card, came out of the chute, so to speak, at the Copeland auction, circa 1991. The price then? $6,000. I'll take two. The question, if you're concerned with value is: what are the big boys going to want that I can get now before the former even know they are going to want it? They don't buy for investment; they buy the best because they want the best! An E-107 Honus Wagner could have been had in 1995 (if you could find one) in the low 4-figure range. One subsequently sold for $136,000 when the E-107 rage was at its peak.
As I've also said, we're here to stay, just as long as baseball and its history, or, if you are a type collector, the history of baseball cards, remains popular.
Just my 95 bucks worth, and wish you well in your collecting endeavors,
Larry