I see the demographic as a maturing. Or sometimes as a washing out of the maturity when I'm in a bad mood.
I've been hearing about the demise of the hobby since at least 1981. The ups and downs have followed the economy, and world and hobby events.
I also collect stamps, and I have articles from the 1800's declaring the demise of that hobby for the exact same reason - no young people getting involved. I can say that that hobby is also experiencing a decline related to lack of youth. I'd bet that the average subscriber age to most publications about stamps is way over 38. Probably closer to 58.
But there is some youth involvement. The local large show has a well attended youth area, with some good displays. And our local clubs newest member is under 20.
Another element is the tendency for youth to desire modernness in whatever form is current. In high school I wanted a car with a turbo, and a nice stereo set, a videogame that used cartridges, and just a bit later a laserdisc player. All of these are terribly old fashioned now. Eventually a portion of the young population will abandon the flashy throwaway "now" culture and start looking for stuff with a bit of permanence. LPs are already making a comeback, although not competing with MP3 downloads. My wifes 20 something coworkers don't even buy CDs, and don't really understand why anyone would.
The future of the hobby and products will look very different from what we have now.
Crazy prediction? I see digital interactive cards becoming much better than the current ones. Maybe with customisable messages from the player, or a secured link to collections of HD video that's limited to a certain number of users. DRM Software is already capable of this. It's usually gotten around, and also usually not well liked by consumers, and prone to problems. One retailer of E books withdrew 1984 over a rights issue. They didn't have digital rights- pretty ironic that was the main book withdrawn, done instantly, so you were reading it one day and the next it was just gone...
I'll have to try some of my toppstown cards to see what's deing done now.
And maybe it;s not so crazy. A few years ago around 1994-5 I had an idea for a scheme where a subscriber would get a new digital card each month, with only a certain number allowed to be printed. I envisioned a special printer and card blanks to go with it. Of course I had neither the technical skills nor the follow through to attempt it - Licensing would have been tough too. The couple people I mentioned it to thought it was totally nuts. Of course now we have ETopps, a similar idea, and likely a failure for anyone except Topps.
There will be change, and we won't always like it. There will also always be a hobby and an industry to support it. We might not recognize it, but it will be there.
Steve B
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