Posted By:
David VarghaI don't see where GAI is making any great coup on the grading of "vintage cards". Whether you take the stance that "vintage" is pre-1973, pre-WWII, or whatever, Global is swamped by the market presence of PSA. The vast majority of grade vintage cards are in PSA holders and SGC has quite a niche, especially in certain pre-war issues that PSA dragged their feet on grading. The PSA Set Registry has strengthened their hold in the marketplace and crossovers tend to go to PSA for the most part. I don't really see either PSA or SGC losing significant crossover traffic to GAI.
Because of the great timespan between PSA's foray into the marketplace and GAI's, it is unlikely that they will ever be much of a challenger. But hey, this is the USA, so more power to 'em.
As to the assertion that raw cards will make a comeback. While certain holdovers refuse to grade their cards (the greatest percentage are pre-war collectors), the vast majority of high grade cards will eventually work their way into holders. Collectors seek what they perceive to be a knowledgeable "expert" to protect them against the unscrupulous dealers that sell, overgraded, altered and counterfeit cards. While "collector grade" cards and modern commons may never find their way into encapsulation, the risks associated with high dollar purchases cause most collectors to eschew ungraded card purchases except at a deep discount. But to cling to the belief that this "newfangled" grading thing is just a passing phase is analagous to the people who believed that the horseless carriage was just an interesting distraction on the landscape.
DavidVargha@hotmail.com