Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
Oh well.
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Just for fun, I attempted to recreate the spreadsheet above. Basically you buy at the first price point, and then we calculate your return as if you had sold at the subsequent dates. So just for example, with the 51B Mantle, you buy in 2005, and then sell in either 2011, 2015, 2019, 2020, or 2022. Then I calculate your return as if you had sold at any one of those dates.
Because we often have selling costs, I also added in some math to calculate the return based on 0%, 10%, and 20% selling costs.
And the results are better than I expected, even before the pandemic. For the most part, you're looking at mid to high single digits through the mid to late teens, even when we're talking about the 20% selling cost mark. Which isn't bad! It's not amazing, but certainly not bad.
And if you factor in the pandemic, then they pretty much all get into double digits. For people who like to look at spreadsheets on screens, here's the details.
Note: Please ignore the fact that the first price point is negative - that's just part of the fun when calculating XIRRs with excel - the first number needs to be negative, since that's what you're spending to buy it. Please also ignore the fact that I'm not factoring in taxes. Since most investment products are evaluated based on pre-tax results, that seemed appropriate here as well.