Great thread, and it seems like I’m a little late to the party, most of the reasons have already been touched on. I really think the shorter careers make a big difference. Quarterbacks seem to be doing quite well, from a hobby perspective, Andrew Luck had a big run, Rodgers cards still go for big money and Brady feels like he’s almost reaching a Jordan like status. Derek carr went nuts last off season, and there is plenty of interest in Deshawn watson and now Pat mahomes. However Todd Gurley after his huge year sells for less than when he was a rookie, Le’veon Bell sells for dirt compared to his performance. Even guys like Ladainian Tomlinson, who was a beast can’t hardly catch a bid. Defensive players are real soft too. I think baseball and basketball are very investment driven, people buying Mike Trout now have to be thinking those cards will increase in value. Basketball is even crazier! While in football the belief (rightfully so) is most of the hot rookies will fade away so there is very little investment driven speculation. I think that plays a pretty big part in the baseball card market.
I know this really doesn’t have anything to do with the vintage market, but I also think we all started buying new cards and transitioned into vintage at some point. For football I don’t see this happening quite as much. Part of it is that football fans aren’t really into the history aspect of the game, like others mentioned the rules have changed quite a bit making old records not as relevant. Football doesn’t have that marquee card like the T206 Wagner, or 1952 mantle. Also the investment aspect of vintage football isn’t there, people have to remember stories like that old net54 thread where someone returned a mid grade psa 52 mantle so they could buy a Mayo Dunlop, talk about scaring people off from investing in vintage football cards. The return difference on those two cards has to be insane and not in the Dunlop’s favor. It’s just little things like that that keep people away from vintage football. I know it influenced me when considering that Dunlop that was on eBay last summer. I’m sure others are in the same boat.
I’m just happy that the lower relative prices have allowed me to be able to put together some nice sets for a price I can afford. And it could always be worse. Football seems to be better off than hockey, and if you really want to know what inexpensive looks like, take a look at vintage tennis cards.
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