Depends on the acidity level of the paper. The more acidic, the quicker it breaks down.
Just a total guess on my part, but I'd say cards like T206 etc will last around 300 years before they become completely brittle and start to disintegrate.
I'd bet though, that before that happens, people in the hobby 150 years from now will determine some type of accepted preservation method to mitigate the circumstances.
Many vintage cards will probably endure for centuries encased in something or coated with something that will be acceptable to the hobbyists 200 years from now.
Or, some type of "recreation" technology will exist and anything "vintage" can easily be recreated anytime anyone wants, diluting the hobby to pointlessness.
Either way, it's not anything we'll need to worry about in our lifetime.
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