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Rich W.I think there are several factors that take place regarding this issue. Certainly, timing is an issue, but I have never been able to accurately determine bad timing. Every time I think there are either too many auctions going on at one time or an auction is ill-timed (ie. right around the holidays), the prices seem to be right where they should be or higher. I have been a regular attendee of Hunt Auctions, and in the past 7 years I can remember one low-priced auction. I remember there was no rhyme or reason for it; it was just slow. SO if anyone can figure out timing, you could write a book.
The biggest issue I feel, regardless of buyer's premiums/consignment fees, is auctioneer reputation. There are several auction houses I refuse to bid with, regardless of material. Then there are several that I will bid with warily. Then there are some (ie. Hunt Auctions) that I would comfortably leave my highest bid without fear of ghost bidding.
Another issue is the reputation of the auction house on grading and lotting. I've bought some lots from auction houses that include numerous, unadvertised surprises. With one auction house in particular, this happens so often that I up my bid on lots, expecting to have some surprises I am not accounting for. Other auction houses list every possible decent item in the lot, leaving nothing to the imagination. Regarding grading, there are some auction houses that constantly undergrade lots. And then there are others that are either dead on (ie. no surprises) or slightly overgrade. Speaking for myself, this history always affects my bidding. I am sure most of you also have similar methodolgies and beliefs that affect your bidding.
Rich W.