Quote:
Originally Posted by benjulmag
I respectfully disagree PSA is too big to fail.
The value of a PSA slabbed card is not the slab, it is the card. Yes, I get it that a PSA slabbed card might sell for more than an SGC slabbed card, but assuming the card was properly evaluated, the asset still exists. In contrast, if a big car company fails, so many jobs both within the failed company as well as the companies that constitute that company's supply chain will be lost. People will be out of work, and communities will suffer greatly.
Bubbles built on fiction eventually burst. We saw that in the housing market where securitized mortgage prices built on vacant or grossly overpriced realty eventually fell to the level the value of the collateralized assets dictated they fall to.
IMO the value of high grade PSA slabbed vintage cards are similarly built on overpriced assets -- altered baseball cards that pass as unaltered. For this bubble to burst all that is needed is enough publicity to come out for it to be widespread knowledge OUTSIDE THIS BOARD that the majority (yes, I mean majority) of 8s, 9s and 10s are altered. What do you have then? Are you saying the private club of wealthy people who are invested in these cards will continue to sell them amongst themselves and that will sustain the prices? Don't you think at least some of them purchased the cards believing they were as advertised, and will not continue to purchase them as it nothing happened? And don't you think new people will be hesitant to join a club whose membership is predicated on purchasing altered baseball cards? And what about entities such as PWCC who look at cards at assets and are forerunners to major funds invested in such cards. I would think they would be taking one huge legal risk investing in such assets if it is general knowledge the assets are tainted. Should the fund collapse, I can only imagine the lawsuits that will follow, and the ensuing outcry for criminal accountability.
And let's talk about bragging rights. I display all my 9s and 10s in a display case prominently displayed in my home where my cocktail party guests can ooh and ahh at how great they are and how important I must be. Then one of my guests in a loud voice asks my opinion about that recent newspaper article claiming most of these cards are altered and worth a fraction of what they sold for. It sort of reminds me of that scene in the movie "Dave" where the fired chief of staff was gathered in his living room with his powerful friends to watch Dave deliver his speech to Congress. Then when Dave exposes who was behind the scam (the former chief of staff) and the camera returns to the guy's living room, all the high-powered guests have left and former chief of staff is sitting all alone with this shell-shocked look on his face.
IMO the sooner this bubble bursts the better. I'm not saying there will not be fallout and some wealthy (and powerful) people will not be hurt. But such people were hurt (a lot worse) when other bubbles burst, and the fact they were did not prevent those bubbles from bursting.
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Hey, we are on the same page, I agree with you: it is a bubble and I have no problem with it bursting. By “too big to fail” I didn’t mean to literally say PSA can’t ever go under. I just meant that if you want to understand why it seems to defy gravity despite the constant scandals, complaints and sheer insanity of the market for 9s and 10s, you need to analyze its position in the market from that perspective. The wealthy end of the market has a lot invested in PSA stuff and a lot to lose if they go under. If a really massive scandal or other event breaks the spell, then of course they’ll cut their losses and jump ship. But short of that, they have tied their fortunes to the PSA bandwagon and are pretty incentivized to keep things the way they are, no matter how insane it looks to the rest of us.