Quote:
Originally Posted by steve B
To me this seems like what would happen. The number of people who want and can afford a Wagner would still be more than the number of copies. So sure, a temporary hit, with things eventually settling back to right about where they are now.
A while ago, I started thinking about what makes the "special" items in any hobby special. And what I realized is that it's not just rarity. For a brief time I actually knew how many cards I had that were probably less available than a Wagner. I don't even try anymore. I'd guess 40 or more, not counting modern serial numbered stuff or stuff from one particular hobby where nearly every item is less available or roughly the same. The whole pile wouldn't even make for a downpayment on a Wagner.
The four things that I believe are most critical for something to get into the really high prices?
the subject has to be both extremely popular AND something that represents the era to someone who isn't a collector. (Wagner, Mantle, the early airmail plane.. )
The item has to be uncommon, but not so uncommon that people can't even fantasize about finding one somewhere. Or about buying one if they have enough. I believe the real sweet spot is around 50-150 known. The Mantle breaks the pattern there as it's a fairly common card.
The item has to fit a popular collecting area, or better still several at once.
HOF, popular set, something like that.
And the most important, there's got to be a great story to it, true or not.
Wagner got the card pulled because of tobacco
Mantle is rare because a bunch of high numbers got dumped in the ocean
The upside down airplane was discovered on the first day of sale and the buyer refused when the PO clerk wanted the sheet back
Without all of those things, stuff can get expensive, but won't usually be the top item in a hobby expensive. Or for hobbies with a lot of very valuable stuff say top 25 or 50.
Even a large find won't usually put any sort of permanent dent in the price of those items.
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Great post, but I would add that it needs to come from a popular set. T206 is the king of the hill. Were the Wagner from any other set, it wouldn't be nearly as valuable. Same with the Cobb-back (though some debate whether or not it's a t206).
I would also add that mantle is far from rare even if the ocean dumping story is true. There are easily 100 times more mantles than t206 Wagners. Even if the Wagner pop doubles there would be under 100 compared to thousands of Mantles. A find of this magnitude would just give more wealthy guys a chance to own one. They will still have to pay strong.