Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
I think it's all related. What I see, from a limited vantage point anyhow, is that hype tends to drive a player's values sky high based on relatively brief periods of success, as though the market is already pricing in that the guy is going to be an all time great. How else can we explain prices way in excess of 1K (and I have no idea how high it goes) for a guy such a Judge who has had two months of success?
Trout, I get, he has five outstanding years in, and it's a relatively strong assumption that he will continue (but see recent injury). Relatively strong, because you have guys who fall way off even after 10 years. Griffey is an example of that, his second half was nowhere near his first. But two months -- in this context -- is way too soon IMO to be paying thousands for his cards. Unless money is no object.
Take a look back at what some Strasburg cards were selling for during his rookie year, when people already had him in the HOF.
|
Rocky Colavito, Cesar Cedeno, Ted Kluzewski, and on and on. Initial demand is speculative and transient. The real time to buy, when such demand has moved on to the latest and greatest phenoms, is when these guys have established a real HOF resume and are in their 30's downslide. Barring injury, though, I do like Judge and believe he will last--love the way he drives the ball from left center to right center, like Mantle did, and stays inside the pitch, with that lead shoulder following, not leading, his hands, so he doesn't open up too soon (unlike Harper, who violently yanks the lead shoulder open to start the swing, which is why he can serve it to but has no real power to left--once that shoulder is open and long gone, the only way to get the bat to the outside pitch is let it linger behind and drag it through the zone). Time alone will tell.
Hi, Pete,
Larry