Quote:
Originally Posted by Exhibitman
Agree with the analysis, James, except that last bit. Popularity of a later card can outpace a RC. The 1951 Bowman Mantle will never top the 1952 Topps Mantle. The W600 Wagner won't touch the T206. And so on.
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adam, you are right and there are a number of exceptions to the rule. i'm speculating that over time the relative value of the bond bread portrait and homogenized bond bread card will continue to increase while that of the leaf/bowman will decline given the disparity in population, attractiveness imo of the bond bread cards, and shift in conventional wisdom to seeing these as his true rookie cards following the price increases that have already taken place. i think the old gold dugout card -- also released in '47 -- is still an excellent relative value but recognize it may have less upside as an oversized card (similar to price disparity between a '39 playball williams and his '39 goudey premium). obviously the market's opinion on the relative value of a rookie card or the designation of actually being a rookie card can change drastically over time.
best example of that over the last few years has been the '25 exhibit gehrig, which most hobbyists didn't pay much attention to a few years ago because exhibits couldn't classify as rookie cards. i think it was in 2015 that prices started to increase to high single digit thousands on low grade versions from staying in the mid-single digit thousand range for many years. that got more people talking about the card and auction prices began to gap up. call it a self-fulfilling prophecy or the tail wagging the dog, but the higher prices paid by a few hobbyists initially led to the change in conventional wisdom: that the '25 exhibit is gehrig's true rookie card and is worth a boatload of money. i don't expect the jackie rookies to have the same upside -- and one can argue that the bond bread portrait already had its inflection -- but at the very least i think they are good relative values.