Originally Posted by steve B
What sort of value were the dealers quoting? There's a big difference between "I'd be willing to pay X" and "I'd price it at X". I'd probably expect a price given between a dealer asking a question and another answering to be in the "I'd be willing to pay X" category.
No, rarity doesn't always carry a bonus. I really wish it did, as I have a number of collectibles that are really quite rare, but hardly any of them even get to even the level of the single tickets, or comparable but more popular even if more common items. If you entirely disagree, and have loads of extra money lets talk!
By the way, that's proven right in your numbers.
Game three and four and yes, even game 5 tickets should be equally rare. All would have been printed in the same quantities. Games 3 and 4 even had almost the same attendance.
"Proofs" would have also had the same quantity printed, since they came together on a sheet.
And yet, the prices are quite different!
Game 3 had a famous event, and brings more. Game 4 was the final game, so it's popular, and poor game 5 wasn't needed and is worth far less.
Lets check the PSA pop reports to see just how rare the proofs might be. It's a flawed number, but will at least tell us something.
Game 3 proof - 9
Game 3 full - 7
Game 3 stub - 68
Game 3/A full - 3
Game 4 proof -6
Game 4 full - 4
Game 4 stub -60
Game 4/B full - 4
Game 5 proof -2
Game 5 Full - 2
No graded sheets, which leads me to think that PSA won't grade the sheet. There's no reason the sheets of proofs should have been separated, other than to get them slabbed.
I'm not sure if the slabs mean much for ticket collectors, from what I've read here probably a lot less than with cards.
If the dealers only think it's worth maybe $3000, and heritage couldn't be bothered to put it as it's own lot, things are starting to make more sense.
For a dealer to maximize profit. They'd have to split up the sheet and get each ticket graded. The wide difference in prices on the game 4 show just how thin the market is for that one as a proof. So a dealer pays say 3000, splits it up which is risky, pays grading fees, and shipping and then possibly shipping to an auction. Plus commission unless they get a special deal. Grading would be 150-300, depending on how they valued them for different service levels. (Not counting the game 5 which they probably wouldn't send in) So lets say they're all in at 3500 in costs.
Now lest figure a best case , average, and worst.
Best- 5750+ 4000+300 =10050, Jackpot!
Average using your numbers - 4077 + 1300+ 250 = 5627 Not bad. about a 2K payday for all that work and tying up their money for a while. But not bad.
Worst case - 1535 +801+ ? About a $1200 loss, and the game 5 ticket is still taking up space in the display case. And might be for a long time.
Or......They buy it for 3K, split it up, go with roughly average prices, and end up with maybe $1500 profit.
Or......They buy it for 3K, and flip it for $4500 to someone who either wants the sheet, or would split the sheet and keep the game 3 ticket selling the game 4 to cover some of the cost. Same profit, less labor/risk.
None of the last two scenarios would turn up in an internet search, but a big ticket dealer may have done it a handful of times.
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A very rough guess on how many "proofs" might be out there. Figure an order from the Cubs for 42,000 tickets. (They ran almost 1000 over the published par capacity of 40,000 so they almost certainly would have bought a few extras. ) The printer needs to make some extra, to cover themselves in case some get damaged in the process. It's not really common, so maybe 1-2% lets round it to 500, figure a few losses in process, test pieces, other general printing goofs, maybe 450? Either they get sent to the Cubs, or were sitting at the printers, either way, most of them probably survived, taken home by people at the printers, or stuck on some supply room shelf at Wrigley. Even if half of them were lost over time I'd say 225 of something qualifies as "not all that rare"
Steve B
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