With most collectibles there's stuff that's too rare for its own good. It's not as bad in fields where nearly every item is unique like very old furniture. But for anything that was sort of mass produced being really rare is something that usually holds down the price.
Some of that is the uncataloged stuff being a bit of a question mark to most collectors. If it's not cataloged, is it real? Is it actually rare? Or is it simply a somewhat hard to find thing that isn't really recognized? Look at how many cataloged items people post questions about. if there weren't places like this the uncataloged stuff would be even more of a mystery.
Another thing is that a lot of collectors want to "complete" something. And the impression of non-collectors is even more geared towards "completion" A friend of mine that I was showing cards to asked how many sets I'd completed. When I told him I'd only completed a few modern sets he said "Oh, so it's not that good of a collection then?" That required more explaining than he had patience for.
With really rare stuff "completing" any set is something that only happens with a lot of luck, a lot of effort or a lot of money. Usually it takes all three.
I've been involved with other hobbies where nearly all the items are more rare than a Wagner. Fortunately for me they're not popular collecting fields. One has gotten more expensive than I can handle, the other takes more time but has prices that are extremely variable.
For something to get really valuable I think it needs to have three things going for it.
"Rare" but not so rare only a handful of people can imagine they have a chance of findng one.
A really popular subject
A really great backstory.
The Wagner
The Plank
The upside down airplane stamp
And to a lesser degree
The Doyle
The 52 Mantle.
All have that going for them.
Consider, the 52 Mantle is twice as common as all but two other 52 high numbers. But costs a lot more.
The Doyle is a bit of a rule breaker. Usually I'd say it's too rare. But if you figure that everyone who can afford a Wagner needs the Doyle to complete the set that makes more sense. Of course, it should be more expensive, but the subject and backstory aren't quite as good as the others.
Personally I really like the very rare stuff. It's more fun to own and for someone with a small budget getting it requires a lot of both luck and knowledge. The rare stuff is like a big game hunters trophies in a way.
Steve B
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