As others have noted, Brent has better visibility into the drivers of the hobby than probably anyone else, so his insights are appreciated.
As a collector and hobby enthusiast for the past 40 years (yikes), I've seen the evolution of the hobby to an industry. Back in 1984, the Clemente Rookie could be had for under $100 in mint condition. So what changed? Why would that card command over $475,000 in 2016?
It was gradual at first, but the introduction of price guides, the internet, Ebay, auction houses and PSA were significant drivers. However, in my humble opinion, what has turbo-charged everything in recent years has been the PSA Registry and Population Report.
The Registry and Population Report changed the game: it taps into the EGO, which is a powerful driver for many. Sportscards have, more than ever, become a serious investment vehicle for many well-heeled individuals. Those who want to have the best, be it as a collector or investor will drive prices higher and higher. Cards are dis-proportionally higher in price at PSA10 vs PSA9 because of this dynamic. What boggles the mind though, are some of the prices commanded for recently issued cards (1986 and newer). To me, this area of the market would seem to be more vulnerable to correction. The older stuff will always be gold.
I expect that if/when "big fish" leave the market, others will readily step in to take their place. For those who want to collect on a budget, you can still do it although at lower grades.
There may be bumps along the way and economic downturns, but I see no end to the long-term trend higher. We probably will look back at this time and wonder why we didn't buy more of what we love at those "low, low prices of 2016."
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