Puckett was also a not-very-good choice. In general, there are enough weak hall of fame members that the "if x is in, y should be too" argument isn't a very good one. Not even his mom thinks that Jim Bottomley should be in the hall of fame, so the fact that Don Mattingly (for example) was better than Bottomley doesn't really help his case a whole lot.
The grievous oversights, IMHO (and ignoring guys who will get in eventually and guys who are kept out because of steroids) are Trammell, Whitaker, and I've come around on Grich. There are a few older guys who are qualified, Bill Dahlen comes to mind, but I have a hard time getting worked up over them. Being good at everything but great at nothing is a good way to get the HOF to ignore you, and that's what's going on with Whitaker and (to a lesser extent) Trammell. Their all-around-skill means that they ended up being just as valuable as more one-dimensional players who were more visible in producing their value (guys like Reggie Jackson). Grich had something of the same problem. Actually, another problem that all three of these guys have is that they're middle infielders, and the voters have always had a hard time adjusting for the fact that middle infielders simply don't hit like corner guys. With the rarest of exceptions, you just can't play a position like 2B or SS at the major league level, and still hit like a first baseman.
Raines is on the short-list for second-greatest lead off hitter ever. The common comparison is with Tony Gwynn. Compare 3931 times on base for Gwynn, 3935 for Raines. Gwynn got his through hits, Raines through walks. Hits are better, they can advance runners. But Raines makes up for it with an extra 500 stolen bases at a very good rate (13th all time on rate). Fortunately, it looks like Raines gets in this year. He'll probably share the stage with Jeff Bagwell and Trevor Hoffman (!?!).
As for the new guys on the ballot, I expect Vlad to get about 50% and go in pretty quickly. Maybe take him three ballots or something. Manny will get a steroids penalty and will clog up the ballot for a decade. Hard to say what will happen with Ivan Rodriguez.
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