Posted By:
Bruce Dorskind
The Final Gavel
For the past 15 years phone, internet and live auctions have been the lifeblood of our hobby. Whilst there are no hard statistics available, our best guess is that 85% of all baseball cards valued at $2000 or greater sold during the past five years have been auctioned by one of fifteen (15) different auction houses. There is no need to post that list. And there have certainly been a handful private sales and a number of E Bay transactions.
As best as we can tell for a catalog auction the time period between the consignment closing date and the payment time is around 100 days. In some cases it is a much longer period of time, and for a few smaller auctions the period may be as short as 75 days.
We are now in an economic crisis of untold proportions. Key note speakers at a recent Wharton Private Equity crisis said there was a one in three chance of a full blown depression (banks collapses and 15%+ unemployment). Cash is king and credit is extremely difficult to obtain (several NYSE companies are paying 15% interest on their bonds). Distrust, uncertainty and panic are ever present across each and every facet of our economy. In plain English people are scared, distrusting and don't know what to do or where to turn.
We predict that by late Spring of this year, all consignors will demand at least a 50% upfront payment. Major consignors will ask auction houses to personally guarantee payment. Whilst we know of no auction house that is on the verge of closing, we predict that at least three of the hobbys top fifteen (15) auction houses will close their doors in 2009. And we predict some consignors will not be paid (at least for a very, very long time) for their consignments.
We wonder how this will affect the overall baseball card market. With tougher terms, more economic uncertainty and a lack of transparency only those auction houses with access to large amounts of ready cash will survive.
Look for more private transactions at lower levels. We welcome your comments.
Thanks for your time
Bruce Dorskind
America's Toughest Want List