Quote:
Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards
I understand your point, but he's been so amazingly consistent and healthy that, while a late 30's drop off is certainly a real possibility, I think 180 hits each of the next two or three years is equally possible giving him room for even a fairly rapid decline later. If he gets 360 over the next two years then he only needs 390 more in three seasons to get there by age 39. I could easily see a scenario like 180, 180, 150, 120, 120. If his decline were more gradual you could see something like 180, 165, 150, 135, 120, which still gets him there.
I did the math and thought an average of 150 hits per, while not a gimme, was reasonably possible, that's what actually led to the thread!
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I get what you are saying; it is an interesting debate. I just think it is really dicey to project health and production for guys age 35+.
On one of the other message boards I post on, I remember there being a huge debate for how many hits Derek Jeter would finish with. Jeter had a great year as a 38 year old in 2012 with 216 hits (over 3,300 hits through his age 38 season). Some of the people in that discussion were projecting him for 4,000 hits based on that 2012 season. Most people in the thread thought it was a given that he would at least get to Hank Aaron at 3,771 for third all-time.
The following year, he played in only 17 games. Two years after that great season, he retired. I know that is just one anecdotal example, but Markakis still seems really far away to me.