My daughter got me interested in collecting the "little cards" in 2002. According to Topps there were more than 4,400 original T206 cards in the 2002 distribution. Of course it is not possible to determine the odds unless you know the total print run.
On another note, Leon and others have often said that collecting current cards often leads to serious collecting. Our first "real" t206 card as a hit on the 2002 set led to a lot of research and a serious case of monsteritis.
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