My two "cents"
I don't know much about the comic book market (I had all the original marvel comics, including the first Incredible Hulk, first Spiderman, first Fantastic Four, etc., when I was a kid, until my dad threw them all out one day. He thought: (1) they were too violent; and (2) I was too impressionable at the time--thanks, Dad!). However, I do study whatever I can get my hands on regarding the history of the coin collecting market, and it is interesting to note that there have been at least 32 individual coin sales for $1million plus that have been reported since May, 1996 through 2008 (See "100 Greatest Coins," 3rd edition, p 124, by well-known coin dealer Jeff Garrett). Other reputable sources in coins include anything written by Q. David Bowers.
PEOPLE LIKE TO COLLECT THINGS THAT ARE RARE AND SIGNIFICANT! The actual, AVAILABLE supply of desireable items, not the number still in existence, determines price--as rare items disappear into private collections for many years--sometimes decades, the actually available supply can be vastly reduced. As that occurs, and/or more collectors are drawn to the item over time, the supply vs demand equation can change quite DRAMATICALLY with regard to an item that is already rare to begin with. When that happens, explosive growth in price is the result!
For the guys buying collectibles at the price levels being discussed here, the amount they're paying is often like pocket change for us. Part of the attraction of owning an example of the rarest and best in any field of collecting is that it is a part of the collector's legacy. Just as THE Wagner has changed hands rather often since it passed through Gretsky and McNall's hands, the so-called trophy coins worth well into six and seven figures experience the same phenomenon, and for the same reasons.
I'm frankly a little stunned that collectors like us would question the fact that collectibles can achieve substantial appreciation over time--we see and appreciate the inherent, though somewhat intangible value they possess, and we strive to obtain the best examples of our own personal quests that our finances will permit. Great art continues to dwarf the prices even the most expensive coins bring (although the book I referred to estimates a unique 1849 Double Eagle--$20 gold piece, with the only known example currently held by the Smithsonian--to be worth a cool $20 million). Check the value in a reliable guide to see what a 1910 T210 Joe Jackson was worth in 1995, then check reported recent sales. Similarly, the very first sale of the 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth minor league schedule card I am aware of was in the Copeland auction in 1989 (?), when it went for $6,000. Try and get your hands on one now for less than $200K!
Maybe we're skeptical because there is a very human tendency to view life as being just what it is at any given moment, and to think that's what it always will be. The value of a collectible is what it is, and that's all it will be (at least until I get around to buying the example I want, then its ok to go up in value). That is a static view of life, when in reality, life is a dynamic sea of change at all times, all around us. Q. David Bowers did a study based on articles appearing in "The Numismatist," a leading coin publication going back, I believe, to the late 1800's. He noted that many times throughout the history of coin collecting (which really became an organized hobby in the 1850's), people felt that coin values had peaked, when time and hindsight showed that that had not even remotely been the case. Ask Barry about the Honus Wagner he sold in the eighties for $16,000!
Wow, what a windbag I've been in this post--probably got ten bucks, rather than my "two cents" in. There will be a thirty minute quiz on this stuff tomorrow, guys!
Larry
|