[Exhibitman]

David, I do agree with many of your points on modern cards.

It is disturbing, frankly, that the manufacturers are taking a nice diversion and making it into a gambling operation. I'm not sure they had any other choice, though, from a business perspective. I was readng through the Standard Catalog the other day at lunch and decided to look at the 3/4 of the book I never bother with, the post-1981 cards. I was astounded how far so many of the values on the 'key' issues of the 1980s-1990s had fallen over the years. Anyone who bought 1989 Upper Deck cards, for example, has to be disgusted at the way it has lost value. A few years of that happening year in and year out and you have to figure--as a collector--why bother with new cards at all when I can wait a year or two and pick up a set for 10% of their current price? If enough people figured that out--and it seems they did--sales would collapse. Hence the need for the lotto gimmicks.

I was also amazed at how many non-autographed, non-relic insert sets there were and how hard they were to find (the listings publish the odds of a pull in the intro paragraph). Given how little the vast majority of them are worth, they too would have ticked me off big time if I'd bought at the time of issue and they too would have led me to swear off new cards.

You are absolutely right on the price points and casual purchasers: the business model has evolved right past them. None of the manufacturers are looking for the 99 cent sale to the kid at the 7/11 now. I think they tried it a few years ago (Upper Deck had a 'collector' level issue at that price point with no inserts or other lotto prizes) and it flopped. Seems that the kids are aware (probably more intuitively than the adults) that shiny crap that isn't signed, cut-out or a manufactured scarcity is worthless junk.