To me, provenance is like curb appeal on a card. It might not make me want to pay any more for the item, but it might lead me to choose the one with provenance over one without. (Assuming that there's more than one of the item to begin with.)
If you're talking about a "name" collection, such as Carter or Barker, then the provenance will stick with the item. But, to use the Johnnyharmonica example, the provenance can disappear pretty quickly. What's Toby's buyer of those '34 Goudeys going to say? I bought this from a guy who bought it from a guy who bought it from a guy... Right.
When I was in the coin business in the early '80s, Bowers & Ruddy brought the Garrett collection to market. There was a huge to-do, including a pair of books using the collection to trace the history of US coins. There have been many other named collections of either coins or stamps. While much gets made of the high dollar value realized at auction, lots of that value comes from what it is, and not very much comes from the provenance.
Yes, I know our Howe McCormick collector is willing to pay a little extra to get those cards. And, as some others have said, provenance might give you a little comfort when it comes to authenticity--for which you may be willing to pay a premium. Still, in the end, provenance is a good conversation starter, but you can't really take it to the bank.
Bill
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