you said: "...and I factor in just about everything into what I bid"
We should exchange our valuation models!
How do you factor in the differential between the ambient air temperature in the target item's location, and the following week's humidity and pollen forecasts for your hometown? I've found there to be an inverse relationship between that differential and the amount of cat hair I usually find within the packaging upon opening, but I have great difficulty measuring the magnitude with any predictive power of significance.