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Gary B.As I said facetiously in my post, rookie cards of brand new players or even anyone still playing is NOT a smart long-term investment, unless the player is already a guaranteed hall-of-famer, and even that you have to be careful with. As I sited, look at Dwight Gooden and Fernando Valenzuela - at one point their rookie cards were worth a fortune, and now practically nothing. Ichiro Suzuki cards skyrocketed at the height of his hype, and then plummeted. A SMART dealer will realize this and dump their cards at the right time, but it's like playing the stock market - can you REALLY know when a card has reached it's apex and will only then go down from there?
Mark McGwire, a guaranteed hall of famer had his rookie card go into the ozone, only then to plummet, especially after he retired suddenly. A Barry Bonds rookie card would be a sound long-term investment I think, but ONLY when he hasn't just done something spectacular - his cards spiked ridiculously after hitting 73 homers, and after passing Mays, and I'm sure they will again once he gets 700, beats Ruth, etc. Once he retires though, will interest in his rookie card suddenly drop? Very likely, at least to some degree.
As you stated, the vintage cards are by far the best as guaranteed investments. These cards weren't printed in anything close to the volume of more recent cards, and weren't always kept in such good condition with people thinking they'd be worth a fortune one day as people try to do with cards of today. One might even go farther and say a dead player is safer than a still living one, because who knows what scandal a still living player could get involved in that would cause his popularity to fall? That's a remote possibility, but it has happened.
I'm not saying this is likely by any means, but what if Lebron James got in a Kobe-like scandal and got convicted - what would this $280K card be worth then? Vintage cards have VERY little risk compared to this insanity...