Somewhat related to this discussion, I enjoyed this blog post:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-fred...3000-hit-club/
I like this adjustment as well:
"ZiPS actually has a milestone algorithm I wrote some years ago that reduces playing time less as a player nears a significant milestone, so the projection system now has Freeman more likely to get to 3,000 than to fall short, at 53%."