[raulus]

Just for fun, I recently read a bitcoin future price prediction report, which I think applies to our little world as well:

The price will go up.

Unless it goes down.

Or it might stay the same.

Naturally, they spent a few paragraphs on each case, discussing the future events and factors that might lead to that outcome. I assume these prognosticators must be paid like lawyers - by the word.

Joking aside, as humans, particularly when it comes to future predictions, current events are a huge mental anchor. Our baseline is to start with today, and then tweak a little up or down depending on whether our views are optimistic or pessimistic. It also happens to be a bit safer when it comes to trying to make a call. Nobody is going to tell you that you're crazy, because that's what everyone else is predicting.

And for the most part, predictions here are pretty well in line with that approach. We're only human, after all.

Personally, I've given up on the fool's errand of attempting to predict future prices. If I want it badly enough and I can afford it, then I buy it, even if I'm forced to pay more than I really want to. And if I can't afford it, then I wait patiently for a day that may never come.