[raulus]

Originally Posted by Snowman

There seems to be some confusion about how sports betting works in this thread, or at least with respect to baseball. Perhaps some "inside baseball" here would be helpful (see what I did there? Lol)

You can only place bets after the betting lines are posted. In baseball, sports books / bookies do not post opening lines for games until the day before that game is to be played. So, if it were Monday, Pete couldn't place a bet on say Friday's game and then make roster decisions today that would affect that game. Betting lines for tomorrow's games are not posted until today's games have ended. This is so that the market cannot take advantage of injuries that might happen in real time.

Also, the betting lines are dependent on who the starting pitchers are for any given game. If a pitcher gets scratched, all bets are off and the bettors are refunded. The line is heavily dependent upon who those SP are. So Pete could not take advantage of that by changing out his SP. The lines are also affected by who is available from the bullpen. If Joe Blow just pitched in relief for the last 3 nights, that can have an effect on the betting line. So, while it is true that any roster moves Pete might make today could have an effect on their likelihood of winning tomorrow, it ultimately does not matter, because those same roster moves will also have an effect on tomorrow's betting lines once they eventually get posted (after today's games are over).

So, Pete's roster moves today, also move the betting lines for tomorrow, which won't be posted until after Pete already makes those moves. He cannot gain an advantage, either today or tomorrow, by trying to win today. The only way he could gain an advantage is by betting *against* his team and making real-time decisions to try to throw those games. But again, there is no evidence of him ever having done that. And no bookie on the planet is going to accept that bet from him.

Thanks for sharing a bit more about how the gambling world works.

Does this mean that it’s a theoretical impossibility for Petey to change his management approach to benefit the games he bets on in a fashion that might negatively impact other games?