I don't think we can draw any real conclusions from anything about the National right now because the times are unprecedented.
The lingering emotional effects of COVID are real. I know some stalwarts who are skipping the show for a second year. They just can't do it yet. Travel itself is a roll of the dice right now. I got caught in flight cancellations recently and was stuck in Newark for 24 hours. Then there is affordability and availability. It used to be that you went to the show to seek out bargains, find oddball issues that did not come to market, and generally see what was out there. Between the run-up and the proliferation of online availability, that is just not the case now.
My theory is that for an increasing number of collectors, the show is a social experience more than a card bourse, and that experience can perhaps be replicated at another event, like a spring training trip or a HOF visit, with more amenities and less hassles. In other words, we are going but not necessarily with the same level of enthusiasm.
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