Quote:
Originally Posted by G1911
Timing the market, in the sense of absolute peaks and highs, is a fools errand.
However, it is usually very easy to see when things are on the higher end, or the lower end. If everything has doubled recently, it's usually not the best buying time. When everything has been falling for awhile, it's usually a good buying time.
When the government shifts signaled that there was going to be an economic boom in 2016, I bought quick and then held. When government shifts later signaled that they were going to kill the economy, I stopped buying. A few more months and it will be time to start looking at more buying as things have fallen significantly this year. Will I buy at the bottom? Almost certainly no, but I will be ensuring I am buying at a low point in the market and not a high one.
It's pretty similar for cards. Just like when stocks 'go bad', some actually do well and make big gains if you picked the right ones, but the majority tend to follow the same basic rules. You can't time perfectly, but you can generally ID the better buying times.
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The research I have seen suggests that over the long haul, you can't really even time approximately and beat the market. Look at all the countless professionals out there trying to do it. Over a long period of time, most of them do not beat the indices. Unless they have insider information.
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Last edited by Peter_Spaeth; 10-22-2022 at 11:58 AM.
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