Quote:
Originally Posted by japhi
Sorry but the overall marketplace is not strong, the cards that trade the most are trending down. Lots of examples pre 86, and almost every modern BBK is way down save for the super rare stuff.
Case in point, Dr. J PSA9 RC peak 57k, last two sold under 20K. I follow hockey. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman RC's all way off highs. Lemieux RC is a key card, top 10-20 in the hobby and is more then 50% off highs.
Broadly the market is getting crumpled, even if some segments and highly desirable cards are trading well. And IMO we have only started, based on the fact most don't seem to understand what is going on.....broadly.
And FWIW, I'm not a card investor so I'm neutral on this stuff. If anything I see this as highly positive, I don't want my hobby to be a speculators paradise. But it feels like 1990 to me, things will likely get much worse (or better depending on your perspective) from here on as trillions evaporates from financial markets.
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Yes a lot of key cards are 40-60% off their highs. My point was that 80% is quite an exaggeration for most. And comparing current levels to the top of a mania's very short-lived bubble prices is always going to make "down x% from the high" look awful, despite how it's the norm for what happens during and after any huge boom.
Like I mentioned before, except for late '80s hoops, the card market has stabilized pretty well for the last year (at price levels that average around 150-200% above where they were before the pandemic).
That is not "crumpled", and yes it is strong market action overall since the pandemic began.
The Lemieux rookie that you brought up (as an example of things supposedly falling apart in general) is actually a good snapshot of what's right in the marketplace. The OPC in PSA 7 was 200 before the pandemic, 1500 for a very short time during the early '21 peak, and has stayed at 700 for the past year. If you see that performance as a problem, then you're not being realistic about how well any market can usually do in the long run.
And again, I am not saying that everything will be fine from here. Things
could collapse in the world of cards, Wall Street, or elsewhere (obviously a lot of economic risks out there at the moment). TBH, the current housing market reminds me of the irrational highs from around 2005. But it hasn't happened yet. And if someone can so easily prognosticate about that going forward, then more power to them!