[BobC]

Originally Posted by tschock

Hmmm, most of the collectors I see at shows are probably under 40 and many even younger. Though they might not be looking at vintage cards.... yet. A poll from within a group of predominantly vintage card collectors is not a good basis for predicting future collectors. It's just a snapshot of where we are and taken only from within a subset of a larger group. I'd be more concerned that younger collectors are not looking at baseball cards, but rather basketball or some other sport (or Pokemon).

It doesn't take a large percentage of card collectors to maintain interest in a small percentage of the card collecting realm (ie vintage). It's from the level of interest in baseball cards as a whole. The future is more related to whether they are into the cards or into the money that can be made as well as related to the level of interest in baseball in general. I do think that set collecting though for baseball cards will eventually go the way of the basketball card market, but I think that will also correlate to how baseball is being marketed.

Similar to other collecting areas (comics, books, records, dolls, cars, etc), people usually get introduced to current items. Those who continue to remain collectors usually work their way backwards.

Some very good points IMO.

One of the questions/concerns I've thought is with that perceived level of interest among the newer generations. If you think about it, the "boom" in the baseball card collecting hobby literally began and grew with the Baby Boomer generation, which coincided exactly with the emergence of Bowman and Topps as the major card producing companies. This was the beginning of an as then unique time because before, literally (with a few exceptions) every every other card set that had ever come out and been issued only survived for a year or two. Aside from maybe Exhibit cards, which are not normally thought of as actual mainstream baseball cards, and Zeenut cards, which were not of current MLB players, the previous longest running, ongoing card distributors of any truly significant level are the Goodwin & Co. Old Judge cards, from 1886-1890, the American Tobacco Co.'s (ATC) T206 cards from 1909-1911, Goudey and their on again, off again production of regular, main cards sets from 1933-1941 (am not counting the premiums, thum movies, etc.), and Playball cards from 1939-1941. WW II effectively took out Goudey and Playball, the Sherman Anti-Trust Act ultimately caused the discontinuance of T206 cards when it broke up the ATC, and (maybe somewhat ironically) the Old Judge cards stopped due to business decisions that resulted in the formation of the ATC. It wasn't until Bowman, beginning in 1948, and Topps, beginning in 1951, that we entered into an era where kids (the true heart and beginning of the baseball collecting hobby) could pretty much count on knowing there would be a another set of their beloved baseball players put out on similar cards year after year, by the same manufacturer. Bowman initially made it 8 straight years through 1955, when Topps bought them out, while Topps (for now) is still going strong, 70 years later.

Anyway, those Baby Boomer kids grew up being able to walk into virtually any corner, dime, or drug store, and always count on seeing a box with packs of their favorite baseball cards for sale, at extremely affordable prices. Sitting right out there on the counters, generally next to the register where you checked out and paid for everything. So you absolutely couldn't miss seeing them, and bugging Mom or Dad for a pack, and you got a stick of gum with each pack to boot.

Now fast forward to the '80s and all those Baby Boomers who grew up with those cards and memories, and are now heading into middle age. They start waxing (pun intended) nostalgic about their past youth, and all their cards their Moms had thrown out when they first left home. So now that they are older, and have jobs and some money, they jump back into cards trying to recapture even a small part of their youth and the wonderful memories of opening packs, playing with and trading their cards with others, and even the smell and taste of those crappy sticks of gum. And of course, ours being a capitalistic society, it also brought out all of the people and companies trying to take advantage to make as much money as they could off those Baby Boomer dreams and memories. Thus in the '80s started the "boom" in the card hobby, and have led us to today where cards are now big business and thought off more and more often as investments, as opposed to being tied to wonderful past memories of our youth. I've read that there is something like literally 10,000 Baby Boomers joining the retired ranks every single day, and by 2031, every single Baby Boomer will have reached full retirement age. It has been decades now since kids could walk into virtually any store and find packs of baseball cards for sale, let alone any affordable ones. Aside from the few card shops that may still be around, my understanding is that Target (and maybe Walmart) are the only two well-known retailers that may still sell baseball cards direct to the general public today. I was out last night doing some Christmas shopping, and stopped in my local Target store. Curious, I went looking to see if they were selling any cards, and finally found some for sale in a little out-of-the-way aisle display. What blew me away was that 90%+ of what was displayed was of things like Magic or Yu-Gi-Oh, cards. There were some Topps and Panini baseball and football cards (no basketball though) for sale, but what really stunned me was that they had single packs of some Topps 2021 baseball base set on sale for $14.99 a pack. That was the cheapest baseball item they had for sale, just a simple pack with like six cards in it, and no guarantee of at least getting one auto, game used, prism, refractor, numbered, or other non-base card in it. I was stunned and didn't realize how ridiculous these modern card prices have gotten. No wonder people don't try to buy packs to put together sets anymore. Heck, they could have at least put a piece of gum in the pack for that kind of price, right? What kids today are ever going to have the same experiences and memories that Baby Boomers did as kids buying packs of baseball cards. NONE!

So how does that bode for baseball cards as a true hobby in the future? Not so sure. The "boom" that started and was caused by the Baby Boomers in the '80s may have also triggered and started leading us down the path to what will ultimately be the "doom" of baseball card collecting as a true hobby. Oh, it will likely survive, but younger people won't necessarily be getting into it for memories and nostalgic reasons. It will likely be just as much, if not more so, about the benjamins, and people in future generations getting involved for investment and monetary reasons. And it is neither good or bad really, just what it more likely will be. And as the Baby Boomer generation that initially caused and started this phenomenon and fuss starts to leave us, I hope that baseball cards don't turn into another Dutch tulip bulb bubble that pops some day.