This is really a tough one. As I read this thread from start to finish, I must have changed my opinion 3-4 times. Bottom line (unfortunately) is that eBay will inevitably side with the Buyer. So why make it difficult or uncomfortable?
I would just issue the refund (in exchange for getting the Poster back), and move on. No point in belaboring the issue or dragging it out, as we all know where eBay would land in the event of a dispute.
Definitely a bummer, but not the end of the world.
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