[QUOTE=HOF Auto Rookies;1468418]
Quote:
Originally Posted by clydepepper
I believe your post was in jest, but the Red did actually sell for that. A few times that I know of. As for the Super, that's my estimate. If he stays healthy and produces like he has been, being 2nd, 2nd, 1st, and then 2nd (most likely behind Donaldson) again to start your career in MVP voting. It's impossible to argue against what he has done in his short career so far.
I will admit I am heavily invested in him. I miss the days buying his signed 2009 Bowman Chrome's for $25 a piece. Now, almost a $2k card raw around the AS break.
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That's a very big IF. We can start with Hal Trosky, who was threatening to become a rival for Gehrig before illness (chronic migraines?) did him in; Pete Reiser, Cesar Cedeno, Tony Oliva, Tony Conigliaro, Rocky Colavito, Dale Murphy, Kerry Wood, Don Mattingly and quite a few others who went into a tailspin early, either due to injury or the well of talent simply running dry too soon. Ralph Kiner might well have hit 600 HR's but for back problems doing him in in his very early thirties.
Plus, Trout has quite a strikeout problem (187 last year? over 150 or 160 again this year?) due to a weakness in the upper part of the strike zone that pitchers didn't learn to exploit until 2014 (which is why the batting average dropped so significantly the last two seasons). With this weakness, I highly doubt Trout will ever have the gigantic seasons Mantle had--1956: 52 HR, 130 RBI, .353 BA; 1957: 34 HR, .365 BA; 1961: 54 HR, 126 RBI, .317 BA. Mantle is just one of eight players to have created more than 200% of the runs the league average player produced over his entire career (other members by way of example include Williams, at the top; the Babe, just behind; Cobb; Hornsby; Jackson; and Gehrig--Mays and Aaron were in the 180% range, by the way--too many outs made and too few walks for the latter two, compared to the Mick. The guys that draw tons of walks also put up enormous runs scored totals, an area where Trout has been good, but certainly nowhere near the caliber of Ruth, Williams and Mantle. The latter stat is reflected in their career on base percentage: Williams at .483; Ruth .464, and Mantle .423. Take a look at the runs scored totals for these three--they are astounding, and not even Ted's mother would have considered him fast!
In addition, the one-of-one isn't really that in the truest sense--Trout has many, many rookie cards which will satisfy much of the demand, and the effect will be to fragment demand for any given "rare" card. If you have one and it ever touches $100K, however briefly, sell immediately! Mike would have to improve quite a bit to ever touch Mantle's toes by the truest measurement yardsticks. It's fun to "invest" in a current player/phenom, but remember the speculative element portion of the demand for his "best" cards is HUGE! And I like Trout too! But if I was going to put $100,000 into cards, he wouldn't even make my list. There's a lot of cards of the Babe, Ted Williams, Cobb, etc. that will do a helluva lot better as investments.
Just my 85 cents worth,
Larry