Quote:
Originally Posted by sycks22
Arrieta wins hands down. Kershaw / Greinke take votes from each other. Arrieta had one of the best 2nd halfs of a season in the history of baseball when the Cubbies needed it most.
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Really, Arrieta and Kershaw both had one of the greatest second halves in baseball history, when you look at the numbers (while Greinke was certainly no slouch, either). Truth be told, Kershaw was actually a little bit better than Arrieta in the second half. Here are the numbers to compare for yourself.
Second half (from July 14th on):
Arrieta 12-1, 0.75 ERA, 107 1/3 IP, 113 K (9.5 K/9 IP), 23 BB (1.93 BB/9 IP), (4.91 K:BB), 0.727 WHIP, 3.839 WPA
Kershaw 10-1, 1.31 ERA, 109 2/3 IP, 141 K (11.6 K/9 IP), 15 BB (1.23 BB/9 IP), (9.4 K:BB), 0.720 WHIP, 4.131 WPA
Greinke 11-1, 1.99 ERA, 99 1/3 IP, 94 K (8.5 K/9 IP), 20 BB (1.81 BB/9 IP), (4.7 K:BB), 0.846 WHIP, 2.822 WPA
Arrieta's 0.75 ERA in the second half may be unmatched in baseball history. In fact,
we know it's the lowest ERA by a starting pitcher (minimum 12 starts) since 1914. But ERA can be deceiving because so much more than the pitcher influences earned runs allowed. I think that the metrics make it clear that Kershaw was better in the second half by the narrowest of margins. A slightly lower WHIP. Higher win probability added. More than 2 strikeouts more per 9 innings pitched, and 0.7 fewer walks. While Arrieta's strikeout to walk ratio of 4.91 is stellar, a 9.4 K:BB ratio is ridiculous. 141 Ks against 15 BB
is historic. Since 1914, only nine pitchers have had a better second half strikeouts to walk ratio (minimum 10 starts). By the metrics, Kershaw was more responsible for his success, and his team's success, when he pitched in the second half.
So, let's look at the entire season. If we look at the standard figures only, then Arrieta would come out on top:
1. Jake Arrieta,
22-6, 1.77 ERA, 236 K
2. Zack Greinke, 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 200 K
3. Clayton Kershaw, 16-7, 2.13 ERA,
301 K
Each leads in one Triple Crown category. But while a team plays a big role in a pitcher's win total, and ERA, strikeouts are the result of the pitcher's performance almost exclusively. Certainly that is one thing to consider, but to which degree rests with the individual voters.
When we start to look at metrics, some interesting things are seen.
ERA +
1. Greinke 225
2. Arrieta 219
3. Kershaw 175
Though Jake Arrieta plays his home games at Wrigley Field, and Greinke and Kershaw both benefit from a pitcher's park in Dodgers Stadium, when the ballparks the pitchers pitched
all their games in is taken into consideration, Greinke leapfrogs Arrieta. Kershaw's ERA +, predictably, lags behind the other two because his season ERA was higher.
WHIP
1. Greinke 0.844
2. Arrieta 0.865
3. Kershaw 0.881
These three are really, really close. Nearly a statistical dead heat. But this next figure is
very telling. Perhaps the clearest indication of who actually threw the best.
FIP
1. Kershaw 1.99
2. Arrieta 2.35
3. Greinke 2.76
FIP considers strikeouts, walks, hit by pitcher and home runs allowed. In layman's terms, it measures how a pitcher does completely independent of the defense behind them. In other words, for the things that a pitcher alone can control, which pitcher was the best? Kershaw is the clear winner here, besting Arrieta by 18%, and Greinke by a whopping 38%. For two top-tier pitchers that share the same defense, that's a surprising gap between Kershaw and Greinke.
Consider that they give up nearly identical hits per 9 IP:
1. Arrieta 5.9
2. Greinke 6.0
3. Kershaw 6.3
And nearly identical home runs per 9 IP:
1. Arrieta 0.4
t2. Kershaw and Kreinke 0.6
All very close. But when you consider the BAbip (batting average on balls in play) these pitchers realized, it's significant that Kershaw had the worst of all.
1. Greinke .232
2. Arrieta .247
3. Kershaw .283
And the number of double plays turned is surprising, also:
t1. Arrieta and Greinke 15
3. Kershaw 8
Then there is the bequeathed runners metric. This is telling, too. In games where these three pitchers left during play (in other words, while the inning was still ongoing), how many base runners did the next pitcher inherit, and how many of them scored (which affects the ERA of the pitcher who allowed the base runner). Look at this:
1. Zack Greinke 8 runners. 1 scored (12.5%)
2. Jake Arrieta 8 runners. 2 scored (25%)
3. Clayton Kershaw 10 runners. 6 scored (60%)
Subsequent pitchers allowed 6 of the 10 runners left by Clayton Kershaw to score, which is twice the number of runners that scored from Greinke and Arrieta combined. How big a difference does this make?
If only 2 of those bequeathed runners had been allowed to score, as happened for Jake Arrieta, Clayton Kershaw's season ERA would drop from 2.13 to 1.97. If only 1 of those bequeathed runners had been allowed to score, as happened for Zack Greinke, Kershaw's ERA for the season drops from a 2.13 to a 1.93. These last three metrics seem to support the FIP figure: Kershaw gets less help defensively than the other two pitchers. A significantly higher number of batters reach base against Clayton Kershaw on balls hit in play. More balls are falling in the outfield, or getting through the infield. And, by nearly a two to one margin, the other pitchers are getting more double play balls. These are things beyond the pitcher's control.
Kershaw had the highest strike percentage (more on that in a bit). He also has the best strikeout to walk ratio of all three pitchers, and by a wide margin.
1. Kershaw 7.17
2. Greinke 5.00
3. Arrieta 4.92
Here is a quick look at the starting infield defenses the Cubs and Dodgers had, by position (using dWAR as a basis):
1B: Rizzo, Cubs (dWAR 0.0); Gonzalez, Dodgers (dWAR 0.1)
2B: Russell, Cubs (dWAR 2.6); Kendrick, Dodgers (dWAR -1.0)
SS: Castro, Cubs (dWAR 0.4); Rollins, Dodgers (dWAR -0.1)
3B: Bryant, Cubs (dWAR 0.6); Turner, Dodgers (dWAR 0.6)
C: Montero, Cubs (dWAR 0.4); Grandal, Dodgers (dWAR 0.2)
Cubs dWAR 4.0; Dodgers -0.2
On the edges, the two infield defenses are quite similar (at least by dWAR). However, up the middle, the Cubs are clearly better defensively. Addison Russell and Starlin Castro, the principle players at short and second base, combined for a 3.0 dWAR, while Howie Kendrick and Jimmy Rollins combined for a -0.2 dWAR.
WPA/LI (situational wins)
This is win probability added divided by the leverage index of each play. This, too, is telling. Though Arrieta won three more games than Greinke, and six more than Kershaw, situational wins are nearly identical.
t1. Kershaw and Arrieta 5.8
3. Greinke 5.7
Things like ERA, wins, hits allowed: these are subjective to a point. Metrics like FIP are not. It removes variables (fielders behind the pitcher) from the equation.
But when you look at the strikeout figures, Kershaw is absolutely overpowering. Look at the number of starts where these guys struck out ten or more batters:
1. Kershaw 13
2. Arrieta 4
3. Greinke 1
What about starts with 9 strikeouts (just missing 10):
1. Kershaw 5
t2. Greinke and Arrieta 2
Also, look at strikeouts per 9 innings pitched:
1. Kershaw 11.6
2. Arrieta 9.3
3. Greinke 8.1
In 18 of Clayton Kershaw's 33 starts, he struck out 9 or more batters. This is a big component of FIP. While in many of the metrics, the trio are remarkably close (hits per 9 IP, home runs per 9 IP, walks per 9 IP, WHIP), Kershaw's strikeout figure should be a big boon for his team. Yet he only won 16 games.
Look at average innings pitched per start:
1. Kershaw 7.05
2. Greinke 6.95
3. Arrieta 6.93
Pretty close, but Kershaw narrowly throws more innings per start. But since we're talking about historic seasons, this statistic trumps them all:
Since 1901, the highest K/9 IP by a starting pitcher (200 IP min) in National League history:
1. Randy Johnson, Arizona 2001. 13.41
2. Randy Johnson, Arizona 2000. 12.56
3. Randy Johnson, Arizona 1999. 12.06
4. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles 2015. 11.64
47. Jake Arrieta, Chicago 2015. 9.28
157. Zack Greinke 2015. 8.08.
For every nine innings he pitches, Kershaw gets nearly 12 outs by himself with strikeouts. The only other pitchers in the history of National League baseball to average 11 or more strikeouts per 9 innings in any season are the aforementioned Randy Johnson, Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, Curt Schilling and Kerry Wood.
One more thing to look at. Strike percentage:
1. Clayton Kershaw 68%
2. Jake Arrieta 65%
3. Zack Greinke 64%
The numbers are pretty close, but it could be inferred that Clayton Kershaw had the best command, overall. Since 2000, there have been 313 National League pitchers to throw 200 or more innings, and only 10 of them have had a higher strike percentage than Kershaw in 2015.
Now, I will absolutely respect your opinions, guys. And I will state that it's my absolute belief that Jake Arrieta will win the Cy Young Award in the National League. Why? Two reasons. 1. Narrative. The Cubs will be the sentimental favorites for baseball fans who don't "have a horse in the race." We all know it's been over a century since the Cubs last won it all. And while Greinke and Kershaw have both won Cy Young Awards in the past, Arrieta has never achieved this level of dominance before. People (and voters) like a feel good story. Not only are the Cubs a feel good story, but how about a 29-year old pitcher who has never won more than 10 games in a season suddenly wins 22 games and has an historic second half? 2. As has been mentioned before, the fact that two of the three pitchers are on the same team will, in essence, partially "cancel each other out", though I believe this flawed thinking. When Zack Greinke is on the field, Clayton Kershaw is watching the game from the bullpen, and vice versa. This isn't the same circumstance where one MVP candidate benefits from another in the same lineup. These two guys never see the field at the same time. The greatness of one should not cancel out, or in any way diminish the greatness of the other. Consider that the Dodgers will have two of the three Cy Young finalists, yet the Cubs won 5 more games than the Dodgers did.
However, when I look at everything, I see that Clayton Kershaw was just better overall, though the gap appears to be quite small.
One more metric, one of my own creation. You've heard of quality starts (6 IP, 3 earned runs or fewer). This is one I call dominant starts (7 IP, 1 earned run or fewer, 10 strikeouts or more):
Dominant starts in 2015:
Zack Greinke 1
Jake Arrieta 4
Clayton Kershaw 9
Truthfully, any one of these guys are deserving of the Cy Young. All had spectacular seasons. I think Clayton Kershaw did just a wee bit more, but I'll be happy for whoever gets the hardware.