Quote:
Originally Posted by Pat R
Hi Ted,
I was referring to some estimates I have seen, including Scot Readers estimate of possibly as high as 370 million t206's in his "inside t206" article.
In the article he provides some valid information on how he came up with his estimates.
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I very seldom differ with Scot; however, in this case I have to question his " 370 million T206's " estimate. I consider this estimate to be way too high for two reasons.
1st....If I recall correctly, about 9 years ago we arrived at T206 survivability number of 1.5 - 2 Million T206's currently in circulation. Assuming 370 Million is valid, that
translates into a "survivability factor" of approx. 0.5 %. Sorry guys, something doesn't jive here.....this factor is way too low.
2nd....What I think Scot has not accounted for in his estimate are the various Non-Sports issues (circa 1909 - 1911). Off the top of my mind I can name the T42 (Birds)
issue, T58 (Fish) issue, T59 (Flags) issue, etc. These insert cards were printed with American Beauty, Cycle, Old Mill, Piedmont, Sovereign, Sweet Cap advertising backs.
And, judging by the large numbers of them that have survived, ALC must have printed them in the many of Millions.
Furthermore, in January 1911 ALC started producing their Gold-Bordered issues with the T80 Military Series cards that had T206-type backs (Lenox, Old Mill, Tolstoi and
Uzit). And, judging from the present day availability of the T80's, ALC must have printed them in the many of Millions.
My point here is obvious, when you account for all the various insert card issues during the 1909-1911 timeline, there is really no accurate way of determining how many
T206's were originally printed and issued during this 2-year period.
TED Z
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