Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
Nobody here has any idea what the market is going to be tomorrow. If they pretend otherwise they are full of it. Things get hot, things get cold. In my opinion HOF rookie cards in decent grade or better are probably most likely to stand the test of time, but I could be full of it too. Or the popular issues of Ruth, Cobb, and Mantle.
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Now Pete, I thought from one of our posts/discussions just prior to the National that you didn't believe vintage collectors had any significant interest in HOF rookie cards--lol. For the record, though, I do agree with you for the most part, and completely with regard to any short term investment. Long term, a very simple formula has proven to be applicable in virtually every collectibles field with regard to appreciation in value: rare, significant, and in the best condition you can find or afford! Condition is of course the easy part, whereas determining how rare and/or significant an item is depends on study, research, and knowledge--and from there, you just have to make your best guess (or analysis). My study of the coin, car, and rare books field, as well as what has happened in this area of collectibles since the late '70's, indicates that if something is truly rare and significant, demand will eventually come around. In contrast, things which are only moderately scarce, rather than truly rare, tend to be cyclical in terms of their appreciation in value.
Always enjoy your posts and wish you the best,
Larry