Originally Posted by btkpath
As some of you are aware, I recently completed my set of 1914 CJ's (Whew!!!!!)
When I first started collecting the set four years ago, I was told that the Del Pratt card was the hardest card to find in the set, bar none, and would represent a true impediment to set completion (other than $$$$$$). The first thing I did upon embarking on this quest was to assemble a combined population list (PSA and SGC added together) to get a more complete idea as to the rarity of other cards. Although there are certainly expensive cards in the set (e.g. Mathewson, Jackson, Johnson, Cobb), none of these cards are particularly rare, and my assumption at the time was that I would see each of them for sale several times per year. I could therefore "pull the trigger" on purchasing those when it was convenient for me. The truly rare cards, though, might not come up for auction again for years, so I focussed on those as my priority. When any of the rare cards (those with combined SGC/PSA populations under 20) came up for sale, I dropped what I was doing and bid strong.
When I started, the truly rare cards were as follows:
Combined population of 10: #74 Frank Owens
Combined population of 11: #93 Del Pratt
Combined population of 12: #86 Burt Shotten and #87 Hick Cady
Combined population of 13: #41 Thomas Leach, #90 Frank Smith, #92 Al Demaree, #95 Ray Keating and #96 Beals Becker
So, in fact, even back then, one could make an argument that the Del Pratt was not the rarest of the 1914 Cracker Jacks. In fact there was a period of time about a year and a half ago that I had three of the #74 Frank Owens cards sitting on my kitchen table (see pic below).
In the past year or two, the popularity of 1914 Cracker Jacks has taken off, and their prices have followed suit. Many raw Cracker Jacks have found their way to the grading companies so their owners could (presumably) capitalize on the recent surge in prices. In fact the population of graded Cracker Jacks when I began collecting the set was 4088. It now stands at just over 5100! Almost all cards have seen substantial increases.
When I look at the population reports now, many of the cards on the list above have increased their populations by 50% (or so). Presently, the three rarest cards in the 1914 Cracker Jack set (based on combined SGC and PSA population reports) are:
#87 Hick Cady (population 14)
#93 Del Pratt (population 16)
#86 Burt Shotten (population 16)
That means there have been 5 Pratts that have come out of the woodwork in the past several years, compared to only 2 Hick Cady cards and 4 Shotten cards.
In the past 4 years, there have been 3 sales of Pratts, all in the past year, for $10,000, $16,000 and $25,000 (SGC 2, PSA 3 and SGC 6, respectfully).
Now for my question......
Given that one can make a very strong argument that the Hick Cady card is more rare and the Shotten card is equally rare to the Pratt, each with fewer new examples getting graded over the past several years and the Cady with far fewer sales why are their prices so much weaker than that of the Pratt ?
Shotten sales in the past 4 years:
3/10 SGC 2 $77
11/12 SGC 2 $831
11/12 SGC 6 $1673
12/12 PSA 4 $1465
Only a single Cady sale in the past 4 years:
12/12 PSA 3 $1953
Sorry for being so long-winded.....I really wasn't trying to filibuster anything!
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