Ebay and Auction Houses vs the Real World
 

A trend I noticed since the beginning of 2021 is the prices of cards through ebay and auction houses are not correlating to private sales (person to person, whether online or in person).

Anyone else notice this and can explain why? Is it simply the thrill of the auction which in turn drives up prices?

Unless you think the auction is being shilled, ebay and auction houses are more "real world" market prices than private sales.

This.

"Private Sales "?
 

..by ''private sales'' , do you mean by cash at a show ?...The Philly Show is next month and I know the dealers don't really want a lot of information being shared after the show closes....

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Sounds like another hobby conspiracy theory thread to me. But if you're being serious, eBay and auction houses are the *real* market. They determine the market values of everything in this hobby. In private transactions, people will often sell at a discount because they don't have to pay the fees that go along with selling an item online. If the sales you're referring to are much lower than that, then the seller left money on the table, whether it was intentional or not.

even more so now that PWCC is gone from EBAY as their hammer prices often reflected a break from reality.

Because they weren't reality LOL

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I have a number of cards that would seem to be worth quite a sum these days (33 Goudey Ruth 144, etc.), but mine are all raw. I am in the process of moving them to a safe deposit box. The thing is, I got them years ago when the cards were cheap, and the Navy pay was flowing (yes, the good old days when you could by Ruth, Gehrig, Cobb, DiMaggio and all the others for a little of nothing). I re-built my boyhood collection, and then some, without going to the poorhouse. I'm embarrassed to say what I paid for them; many were given away free to me. I actually bought a real Babe Ruth signed ball for $500. Anyone remember when you could do that? But ungraded, I will bequeath them all to my daughter. So I guess I am lost in this crazy "real world" of today.

At least one factor--maybe I am stating the obvious (seems to be my specialty)--but for eBay sellers, the 12-14% eBay fees get tacked onto the selling price, so a seller could sell a card on eBay for $800 or privately for like $690 and in both cases makes the same amount.

It is always nice to deal with individuals directly to save fees. However, auction houses and eBay have the supply that I am looking for. You can sit around a long time waiting for something to come available with a personal sale, or pay up a bit to get what you are looking for more immediately through the big sellers/dealers.

I built most of my collection in the 1970’s & 1980’s. Did not pay a lot. Joe

From what I've seen at cards shows over the past few years since 2015 people pay don't pay auction house prices at shows.

Also notice why many dealers no longer get higher end card deals?

It's because the auction house get most to all of the good material they have all the leverage.

I’ve considered selling a few nice cards recently via BST or private sale, but honestly I have cards that I can’t value in this market. Are they worth 10,000? Or 25,000? Or more. I would be hesitant to sell a real nice card right now in anything but an auction, or I’d be afraid I just sold someone a card for $10,000 I could have handed to an AH and let them sell for 30,000.

It depends on the card (s)
 

Cards that are regularly sold with record of at least a few current public sales might sell at a slight discount due to reasons mentioned above (I generally offer mine in line (or slightly lower) with a premium or deduction based on eye appeal/grade quality).

Cards for which there are very few sales, I often sell for more than "comparable" auction sales, usually due to a lack of available supply.

Re: Steve's conundrum - I LOVE buying some of these types of cards in auctions as I can sometimes get them for way less than what I believe I am able to sell them for. I actually recently got hurt consigning to an auction company (who shall remain nameless) - I declined a $20K private offer for a card I thought should sell for more - gave it to an auction company and it sold for $13K! AFTER the auction I was told "that is the risk" of an auction.
Important to consider not every card sells for a strong or record price in an auction (despite advertising implying the contrary). When I sell privately - I do a lot of due diligence and establish what I believe to be a fair current market value as an asking price (more art than science). The fear is always about leaving money on the table - it can happen no matter how you sell. My advice - pick a method, determine a price (depending on the method) and don't look back.


All of the above simply illustrates the gross "inefficiency" of the market.

I think we all at times overestimate the demand for certain cards. Yes, there are always people looking at Goudey Ruth, Jackie rookies, Paige Leaf, etc…. But for some scarcer, more obscure issues, a card may be “worth” 25,000, but there may be a total of 5 people who are potentially willing to pony up that kind of money for it. And if one of those guys just got one, and another is not buying right now, or a slightly nicer once is coming to Heritage next month ….. well that’s exactly how your auction underperforms.