Rising Tide Lifts All Boats, But . . .
 

With the onslaught of record prices for many higher grade and higher profile cards, there has been some truth to the old adage that a rising tide lifts all boats. But where there is a rising tide, there has to be an ebb as well.

The purpose of this post is to raise discussion about possible areas that are suffering from the rising tide. While many wonder whether this is an approaching bubble or something else, I'm pretty sure that taking all things into consideration, there is a wide range of opportunity if one only examines where the rising waters are focusing their attention. There are areas of the hobby that have fallen on lean times.

There is always an equilibrium in the hobby, and while some are chasing with dollars in hand trying to catch the ice cream truck before the flavor of the day sells out, I believe that the astute hobbyist has already identified areas of opportunity and is and will continue to take advantage while these opportunities are present.

I'd love to hear the thoughts of other members and get their feelings. Whether you're running after the ice cream truck, selling your ice cream or just wonder what the hell I mean by an ice cream truck and rising boats, it would be interesting to read the perspective of others as it relates to where you all think the hobby is heading...

Another perspective...

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked"

Warren Buffett

Mid grade commons from many pre-war sets are setting record low levels.

All I have to do to prove that the onslaught of record prices is an illusion is to list a card for a reasonable price on ebay or the BST. :)

I was about to say.... I got into the hobby this time last year and it "seems" as if prices for mid/low t206 commons has gone way down.


SGC 40's and PSA 4's were pretty expensive this time last year... Not anymore.

Maybe I'm off base?

There are many pre-war sectors that have plunged. There also has been a significant ebb in the supplemental post-war commons.

Does this present a buying opportunity? Does this just suggest that money has been reallocated?

Commons have always been just that, commons. The insane prices one saw for a number of years for a card of a nothing player that was just ever so slightly better centered than most were a function purely of the egos of a relatively small group of registry freaks. I suppose there will always be set collectors, but I would guess the money now being poured into the hobby is going to stick with major rookies and HOFers and not go into set building which is too laborious for investor types.

It seems a lot of the E cards are priced below where they were priced a few years ago, even the big names like Cobb, Wagner, Matty, etc. I think these qualify as cards that have fell on lean times or at least cards that haven't risen with the tide.

Rookies from the 30s and 40s that haven't gone crazy like the 50s cards could be next as well. Williams, Robinson, and Dimaggio come to mind.

Agreed, I haven't seen the "E" Series really come around (in general) since the bubble during the recession. Exception may be the E94's, Purple especially. E98's - I was wondering if Black Swamp Find played some role into the prices of the low-mid cards? More supply, higher end coupled with less demand overall? E93's, E95's, E96's and E97's seem generally soft to me. Perhaps not so much with the occasional Cobb, Matty, Wagner - especially in mid to higher grades, but overall, in general interest and prices seem flat.

Scott:

Here is the equilibrium. When the most expensive cards in any set get out of the reach of collectors (in any condition) as part of the cost of the set. Let's say 1955 Topps Clemente, e.g. then collectors give up in trying to complete the set and put back those cards into the marketplace.

And when that happens, well.... then the mid condition commons and "stars" go down in price but not the superstars. A few years ago that happened with sets such as the 1949 Bowman Hi Numbers where there were major buying opportunities in those cards/

Rich

d cards seem to be low as ever these days...as mentioned many e cards are still pretty low. many high grade e94's/purple e94's have hit the market in recent past and they have garnished strong prices.

if this is true...as many here seem to think...that recent dramatic rise is due to many "non-collectors" entering the market...then "commons" will continue to remain stagnant unless they are uber high grade and the cards that will continue to rise will be the big name hof'ers especially in super high grade.

I agree with this also. In the past when set collecting, I would find myself spending $$$$ on commons that I would only spend one minute looking at, after I bought it, and I would put it in a box with the rest of the set, and never look at these commons again. After a while, I just could not justify spending so much money on commons and preferred to spend it on cards that I wanted to look at all of the time.

I also wonder if the rising prices on the "key" cards in the hobby is having an effect on depressed prices in other areas. For example, a collector might have a 1951 Bowman Mantle or 1955 Topps Clemente as a second or third tier card in their want list that they want to pick up someday, but just not right now as their working on whatever set they are trying to complete. However, as the prices of these key cards have skyrocketed, collectors are thinking, hey, I better get one of those cards now or I might never be able to afford one in the future. So, they are trying to chase that runaway train. Of course, if they are able to purchase those key cards, they have a lot less money to spend on those commons in that set they were working on.

Popular 50's sets such as '53 Bowman are suffering. I listed a bunch of nice ones this week at a .99 starting price and the reception has been cold. I could be proven wrong by Sunday, but the number of watchers is low.

Centering
 

Cards with top flight centering for the grade are bringing some really nice prices. Cards with average or below average centering for the grade aren't doing as well.

This thread really speaks to my internal struggle as a collector. I love the idea of continuing to be a set collector. However, my collecting budget is a bit limited at this stage of life by choice so I can't feel good about sinking money into commons. I stop and consider that I could purchase some nice star cards out of multiple sets I like for the money I would tie up in commons.

I have gone so far as to consider selling off the commons and much of my '53 Topps set and '65 Topps partial and just holding on to the five or so cards I really want and then using the newly redeemed cash to buy cards of HOFers (pre and postwar ) I would really like to have.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

I have a couple of general thoughts on this.

The maturing of the Internet and proliferation of on-line auction houses has dramatically influenced how people collect - not just what, but how they enter the hobby, and what interests them from day to day.

Mantle and Cobb, for some reason, have taken off at a rate I haven't really seen in quite awhile. I sold mine for what I thought were ridiculous prices only to look back just a few months and start to feel like I should've waited a bit longer. People who recognized the value in Mantle's 51B card only a few months ago are now seeing even crazier prices today.

Common T206s in 5 and below have stayed at about the same level for the past 10 years or so, with some exceptions - collectors are also waking up collectively to the relative scarcities of certain commons in the set (e.g., Bull Durham).

The takeaways for me are not that different than usual - Cobb and Mantle and Ruth always sell and always seem to appreciate in stages.

Where I get scared is when I shell out $5K+ for a common T206 card signed by the player, a practice I've engaged in way too frequently of late. In that niche area of the market there are only three or four people engaged, and we all know each other. If I go to sell, I'm removing 25%+ of the buying market. If one or two of the other guys stop being interested there will be a massive softening. I like to remind myself that I collect for the beauty and passion without regard to price. But, if I ever need to sell, I really don't have any particular expectation that I'm going to get money back on these!

What I've learned as of the last 10-15 years...sometimes the hard way...is that rarity does not equal value. I thought the lowdy w/red cross back t207 that I won in REA years ago was kind of a bargain for what I won it for...being a 1 of a kind.

When I sold I took a big bath...and since it has sold for less with each subsequent sale.

It seems that when cards are too rare/scarce...not as many people are interested in them.

I'm a slow learner...and I tend to learn my lessons the hard way.

As long as you love collecting signed cards...ultimately that's all that matters!

This is a hugely key point. People like to chase after things, but they also like to catch them sometimes. The popularity of T206 is driven by the Wagner mystique at the top of a readily accessible set. It's proliferation and availability is a primary driver of interest in the set. People love being able to pick one up on a daily basis.

Supply/Demand
 

Supply and demand. We all know supply on our pre-war cards is quite low. However, the supply variable is nowhere near the importance of the demand variable for card valuation. Its almost like if you get below a certain supply number, the demand is almost non-existent. There has to be enough supply to drive values up - doesn't seem right, but thats the way it works with certain "big" cards. Thinking back to college economics 101, not sure the straight line supply/demand curve works as taught here with cards.

Look at all the pre war commons on ebay...is there a home for them all????

Supply and demand curves are often non-linear. To take one dramatic example: if there was only one telephone, there would be no demand for it, and (up to a point), demand increases as supply increases. (Because the value of having a phone depends on being able to talk to other people on it.)

And yeah, that t206s, and 33 Goudeys, and a lot of the other valuable sets are valuable depends, in part, on them being relatively common and widely available. Trying to build a very very rare set is difficult enough that lots of people aren't going to try it. And while trying to complete the monster is also really difficult, you can at least make progress on it pretty easily. So lots of people try to. Which produces the demand, hence, the prices, despite the easy availability.

In my very brief time with cards..... I've made the decision that if I am buying and collecting on value and potential to hold my value or even appreciate... I'm gonna stick with t206's (HOF's/and occasional rare backs).... And cracker jacks.

I don't think the market is ever going to fall away for those 2 sets... Much because of the points made in the posts above

Interesting takes.

I've noticed when meeting with the public while buying that there has been a perception that as some of these record prices are realized, that there is some expectation that the prices should have some correlation with an equivalent increase in the set pricing.

Sadly, this isn't the case. At least with respect to average or mid-grade sets, which is a majority of what we see.

Actually I think sets, and near sets, are where the discounted prices might be nowadays.

1933 DeLong set has decreased in price/value mightily over the past 5-10 years.